As Tribune loses executive, some newpapers move toward Chapter 11

Tribune, formerly a public newspaper and broadcast company, lost the publisher of its largest newspaper, the LA Times, and the editor of its flagship, the Chicago Tribune. New controlling shareholder Sam Zell is in trouble, burdened by buyout debt he may not be able to pay.

Most analysts saw another modest drop in newspaper ad revenue this year. It has been much worse than that. At some companies in the industry, ad sales are off nearly 15%. An analyst recently dropped his price target on The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT) to $8 and said the firm would have to cut its dividend. The stock currently trades at $13.21.

The two public companies which are at most risk for not making it another year are Gatehouse (NYSE: GHS) and McClatchy (NYSE: MNI). Both took on big debt loads buying newspaper properties. Both are seeing operating income chopped by falling sales. Either could hit debt service problems which could force them to sell properties of file for Chapter11.

Gatehouse dropped as low as $1.11 in the last few days. Its 52-week high is $19. McClatchy is down to $4.93 from a 52-week high of $28.65. Gatehouse is the most troubled with a high dividend and $1.3 billion in long-term debt.

Newspapers companies have gone from being in a tight spot to being candidates for liquidation. They are a short-seller's dream.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.