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Bernanke wakes up late from a dream

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The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] reports that Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony is full of uncertainty. The interesting part is that he's suddenly coming to realize that there is inflation in the economy. With oil prices up five-fold from $24 in January 2001, the dollar down 72% and food prices triple where they were a few years ago, Bernanke's statement suggests that he his suddenly becoming aware that core inflation -- which excludes energy and food prices -- is not real inflation. His statement suggests he only now comes to realize that energy and food prices part of our economy too.

Investors are spooked by Bernanke's uncertainty. I would support an effort by Bernanke to stop the fall in the dollar, but in order to make that work, the White House will need to direct a change in policy. This would mean raising interest rates, reducing the budget deficit -- including ending tax breaks for the rich and pulling the plug on expensive wars, as well as paying down the $9.5 trillion federal debt.

Guess what? That policy will not happen under the current president. And if Paulson is serious about raising the national debt to bail out the mortgage industry, the dollar will grow even weaker. The administration's policy of waiting until a disaster strikes to wake up and do something is costing this country trillions. I think we're getting to the point where we need to ask whether there is a limit to how much bailing out the U.S. can afford.

Meanwhile, if Bernanke raises rates to combat inflation, it will be interesting to see what that does to the flow of credit.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 12:18 AM

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