The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] reports that Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony is full of uncertainty. The interesting part is that he's suddenly coming to realize that there is inflation in the economy. With oil prices up five-fold from $24 in January 2001, the dollar down 72% and food prices triple where they were a few years ago, Bernanke's statement suggests that he his suddenly becoming aware that core inflation -- which excludes energy and food prices -- is not real inflation. His statement suggests he only now comes to realize that energy and food prices part of our economy too.
Investors are spooked by Bernanke's uncertainty. I would support an effort by Bernanke to stop the fall in the dollar, but in order to make that work, the White House will need to direct a change in policy. This would mean raising interest rates, reducing the budget deficit -- including ending tax breaks for the rich and pulling the plug on expensive wars, as well as paying down the $9.5 trillion federal debt.
Guess what? That policy will not happen under the current president. And if Paulson is serious about raising the national debt to bail out the mortgage industry, the dollar will grow even weaker. The administration's policy of waiting until a disaster strikes to wake up and do something is costing this country trillions. I think we're getting to the point where we need to ask whether there is a limit to how much bailing out the U.S. can afford.
Meanwhile, if Bernanke raises rates to combat inflation, it will be interesting to see what that does to the flow of credit.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-15-2008 @ 11:22AM
Doug said...
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BAD DREAM. MORE LIKE NIGHTMARE. BERNANKE NEVER DID HAVE IT. AND PROBABLY NEVER WILL. THEY SHOULD GET RID OF HIM ALONG WITH BUSH. THEY ARE TOO WORRIED ABOUT OTHER PEOPLE AFFAIRS, AND CAN'T EVEN TAKE CARE OF THE PROBLEMS IN THE US
7-15-2008 @ 11:23AM
Doug said...
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BAD DREAM. MORE LIKE NIGHTMARE. BERNANKE NEVER DID HAVE IT. AND PROBABLY NEVER WILL. THEY SHOULD GET RID OF HIM ALONG WITH BUSH. THEY ARE TOO WORRIED ABOUT OTHER PEOPLE AFFAIRS, AND CAN'T EVEN TAKE CARE OF THE PROBLEMS IN THE US
7-15-2008 @ 12:04PM
Bob Nelson said...
Owners and executives of banks seem strangely silent about the government’s role in politicizing the lending of money and then forcing mergers to cover their mistakes. I asked one such person how closely the current crisis mirrored the S&L mess in as much as he has been on the Board of both. He said it was exactly the same. He’d been on the Board of large S&L in Portland. The Regulators demanded this S&L take over a collapsing high flier S&L or lose their federal insurance with the promise that they, the government, would help straighten it out later. It took both S&Ls down and the Board members got sued by those who lost money. Bureaucrats, like politicians, are totally Teflon when it comes to blame and the current mess is a perfect example.
7-15-2008 @ 12:34PM
henry kiel said...
the problem is all of Washigton D.C. democrat and republicans.They go to the same parties and hear the same gossip and lies.If you tell the same lie long enough everyone will start to believe it.The chairman of the fed. goes to these same parties.i also think a lot of are congressmen and congress women are being blackmailed for what they did at some of those parties when they had to much to drink.do not vote for a sitting house member or senator in the primarry elections
7-15-2008 @ 12:56PM
Petkov said...
The USA NEEDS the "war on terror" to make money and to try to steak the oil and to bully other countries(Russia) into wasting their money for military spending. Thats what made the Soviet Union to collapse back in the early 1990s after all. The USA needs the war because it's been a war fueled economy ever since WWII when it found out how profitable a war can be.
So obviously the USA wont get out of Iraq or Afganistan. The Fed cant raise the interest rates or the ressesion will turn into a depression. Oh, what to do what to do??
7-15-2008 @ 2:00PM
R. Earl Hadady said...
Bernanke has lost his way or never knew what the crux of the real problem was. Four (4) government retirement trust funds (government employees, military, railroad and social security) overshadow all other government finances. As of the close of 2007, in hard numbers the net value (assets – liabilities) equaled some −$20 trillion . . . and currently growing about −$1 trillion a year. See the government fiscal budget to confirm in that assets of these trust funds are included, but not liabilities. For comparison the Gross National Product (GNP) for fiscal 2007 is a mere $13 trillion. Other government problems are inconsequential. A booklet is available which provides calculations and hard numbers covering 1975 thru 2007.
7-15-2008 @ 2:06PM
starcd53 said...
Raise interest rates to 5% as 90% of these problems will go away. Dropping rates to 2% caused all of the above problems in the first place. Saving 1-2% of the bad mortgage deals have now affected the other 98% of the good mortgages by driving up inflation to 15-20% per year when all factors are included. The FED really made very BAD choices when they lowered interest rates. BAD, BAD FED !
7-15-2008 @ 2:20PM
Michael said...
The easy fix.
Repair the housing and you repair the economy.
90 days of a 5% fixed rate on your home loan. You qualify great, if not, then you never deserved to have a house at this point. This helps those in foreclosure to keep there homes. They then know where they are going to live and that fear is gone. That then helps evryone else, the home depots, the resturants, because people will then know what their disposable income is. Very important.
7-15-2008 @ 2:24PM
MG said...
When the S&L crisis happened, it was the other
Bush brothers in Miami. Guess who is President ?
What a mess. Get it together Washington.
7-15-2008 @ 3:39PM
william lindblad said...
Peter, this time I am mostly on your side and it is a good article. Bernanke is certainly walking on thin ice as he is trying to satisfy criteria on both sides - and at the same time.
It fits the old saying of you can't have it both ways. Ben is by far no dummy, but the balancing act is not going as planned. This is sort of the tail wagging the dog as he is concentrating (along with Paulson) on keeping stability on Wall St. Friday's ruse about making funds available to Freddie and Fannie kept the market out of major down turn. Sunday's message and today's hearings are more of the same. Today is when Ben really blew it as there was momentum and it was reflected in the price of oil and small movement on dollar vs euro. If he had not chosen to ignore inflation and hinted at a 1/4 point rate hike oil would have retreated even further and the euro would have dropped back to 154-55 range. A quarter point hike will not effect credit one iota as there exists so much fear within the banking system that only time will provide a cure. The big mistake is that all the effort at stabilization is aimed at the Street and not the consumer, which is were it should be. The government still believes that there is NO problem.
7-15-2008 @ 6:56PM
HardMoney said...
Blame the Mortgage Brokers, blame the consumers, blame the banks, and anyone that wanted a high yield when rates were lower than now.
Everyone is to blame to a certain degree.
Add in a President that has no clue what is going on and a Fed Chairman towing the line and you have trouble.
Read John Kenneth Galbraith's "The Great Crash 1929" and you heard the same nonsense back then about the fundamental market and economy being strong. Hoover had it wrong and Bush does not even have it.
Time to short the market, Dow 9200 anybody?
Have a mansion for sale in Rancho Santa Fe if Bernanke would like to buy it with any addtional Bear Stearns debt.
7-15-2008 @ 8:04PM
Danny L. McDaniel said...
The value of the dollar is the equal to the stock price of the U.S. Right now, the U.S. looks like General Motors: old and incapable of doing anything right for at least a decade. This country is beyond recession and has now entered the turbeulent waters of something more dangerous. I say replaces Dr. Bernacke with Dr. Jim Cramer. We are in world of hurt for sometime to come and some institutions should be allowed to fail. The sooner we can start over the quicker to growth and prosperity. The entire economy needs to be recycled. Americans have a 1950's financial view in a 2008 world.
Danny L. McDaniel
Lafayette, Indiana
7-15-2008 @ 8:30PM
midnightyacht said...
BERNACKE HAS BEEN A TOTAL IDIOT FROM DAY 1. I HAVE NO FINANCIAL EDUCATION BUT HAVE BEEN NEGATIVLY BLOGGING EVERY NMOVE HE HAS MADE. GET RID OF HIM NOW. THE US IS READY TO HEAD INTO A DEPRESSION. STOP SAVING ALL THESE LOSERS BANKS AND INDIVIDUALS INCLUDED.LET EVERYTHING FIND ITS LEVEL And start over.
7-16-2008 @ 12:39AM
The Baron said...
Now if Peter taught Math and Science ,I would be concerned. But he teaches Business management which explains his faulted economic paradigm that says you have to raise interest rates to fight inflation. No Peter, not when the inflation is primarily the result of a rise in Crude prices to a level that we have little or no ability to change because it is no longer a supply and demand function. And raising rates to shore up our currency
won't do anything to fight inflation either because the Euro,for example ,will move in relationship to what those countries perceive as that necessary adjustment to satisfy the risk factor seen in the U.S. economy which supports the dollar.Remember when they buy our Treasuries they have to buy our dollars first at a very discounted price that increases their yields proportionately. What we really need is an increase in the margin requirements on Crude commodity future contracts to 50%. And ,if you can do the math, you will know why. And Peter, do you and you followers know that ,right now, the U.S. has more Crude available than it can refine. It is called a lack of refining capacity. And as long as the people of America are keep ignorant as to what is going on in the Crude world,and we have elected representatives who are equally ignorant,our energy crisis,inflation and recession will continue to get worse. No,Peter, Mr Bernanke is no dummy,in fact, you, Greenspan,and a host of other would be advice-Gurus, don't understand this man's genius because you have to be one to understand what he is doing,tryintg to save us from a fate we deserve.