Intel Corp.'s (NASDAQ: INTC) quarterly earnings results are like a canary in a coal mine for investors. If the world's largest chipmaker beats Wall Street expectations later today, then shares of every gadget, widget and internet company will raise in sympathy. If things go awry, tech investors better run for cover.Interestingly, Wall Street analysts are forecasting growth at the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company to slow to a crawl in the quarter but most consider the stock a buy. Revenue is expected to increase 7% in the second quarter, down from 12% in the previous three quarters, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News who are calling for sales to rise 4% this year, half the rate of 2007. Analysts expect the company to earn 26 cents per share on revenue of $9.33 billion.
Earlier this year, tech research firm Gartner reduced its worldwide sales forecasts for personal computers, citing the weakening economy and cautioned that growth could drop into the single digits. But what's driving Intel these days is notebook computers, where sales remain robust. Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) reported better-than-expected results in May because of growth in laptops sales.
But how long will this continue? Corporations are keeping a close eye on their bottom lines these days because of concerns about the economy. Any new equipment will have to demonstrate a pretty strong return for the investment. Maybe companies will be more interested in buying cheaper computers or keeping their old equipment for a year or two. Home computer sales may also be further constrained as people decide they need to spend their money on important things like fillng up their gas tank.
As Douglas McIntyre recently noted, short sellers are betting that tough times lie ahead for Intel. "Shares sold short in Intel for the period ending June 30 rose 44%, or 27.4 million, to 89.2 million," he wrote. "That was the largest increase for any company traded on Nasdaq."
Intel's results will have to hit a home run to overcome that level of skepticism.
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