Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), a competitor of IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), will report its earnings for the fourth quarter on Thursday. According to Trey Thoelcke's earnings summary, the software giant will be expected to produce sales of about $15 billion on earnings per share of 47 cents. These numbers would represent double-digit growth rates for each metric.

According to this estimates page at AOL Finance, Microsoft has cultivated a reputation for being reliable when it comes to delivering on Wall Street expectations. It certainly has the assets to keep this trend going. The company's operating-system monopoly, as well as its incredible success with the Office suite of products, guarantees a steady stream of cash flow and bottom-line predictability. Other investments, such as the Xbox 360 and the company's various Internet properties, aren't as guaranteed. In fact, Microsoft has engaged a very strange battle (strange to me and others, at least) to buy Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to bolster its future prospects on the 'net.

So, here's what investors should be looking for. I will be very interested in what management has to say about its thoughts regarding Yahoo! and its utility for Microsoft. Is it an absolute necessity? I doubt it, and I really do hope that shareholders will finally get some closure on this subject. The best thing would be for Microsoft to announce that it is done with the portal. And in terms of the Xbox 360, I would be interested in hearing any new marketing strategies being readied for the holiday season and if the current recessionary environment will have any effect on sales. Microsoft recently reduced the price for one Xbox 360 model as a way of increasing that system's value proposition in relation to the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii. The company also has entered partnerships with General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), according to Variety, to make its Xbox Live asset even more attractive to users looking for cool content such as movies and TV shows.

Here are my thoughts on the earnings. We won't see a miss most likely. This won't be a GE-type debacle. Earnings will probably be beaten slightly. I doubt we'll see any kind of blowout. With the stock much closer to its 52-week low than its 52-week high, do I think that there is an earnings trade of any kind here? I emphatically don't. For me, the market is way too bearish to step in front of the earnings. Yes, I could imagine the stock rallying for one reason or other, but the risk-reward scenario doesn't feel right to me. Microsoft has easily been an earnings trade in the past, but presently, I wouldn't take the gamble of an oil spike ruining the Dow on the day that Mr. Softy -- itself a Dow component -- reports.

In conclusion, I don't expect too much of a difference between analysts' estimates and actual numbers. I wouldn't get cute with trading the stock before the report. If you're a long-term investor and the stock for some reason gets punished once the data points are released, you could take that as a buying opportunity. Shorter-term traders need to be wary.

Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change at any time.