The New York Times reports that Citigroup (NYSE: C) CEO Vikram Pandit is trying to buck up his troops with speeches on values. Since taking over last December 12, Citi's stock has lost over 50% of its value and has accumulated $45 billion in losses in the last year.
A few days after he started as CEO, I suggested that Citi might be a buy if it hits $15. I am sorry to say it, but I was wrong. We're at $15 today and I would not buy more at this price. With analysts expecting Citi to lose 31 cents a share when it reports on Friday, it seems to me that the downside risks to the stock weigh heavily. That's because it's missed estimates the last two quarters and Zacks thinks it could lose as much as 51 cents a share. But what worries me the most is what the Times reported about what appears to be a missing sense of urgency about how to fix Citi.
It describes how he spent time at a meeting in Armonk, NY, pushing "60 top managers to build on his seven rules, which he unveiled in the last few weeks. Those rules include items like "client connectivity," "transparency" and "product excellence."" Not surprisingly, in my view, the Times reports that "some Citigroup insiders roll their eyes at what they see as dull platitudes."
I think it's time for Pandit to split Citi into the good bank -- the international business is doing well -- and the bad bank -- just about everything else. I think it will need government help to fix the bad bank, which includes trillions in derivatives and hundreds of billions of assets that nobody wants to touch.
And given his apparent lack of eagerness to change Citi's corporate strategy, I question whether investors will have the patience for his push to change Citi's culture while its economic platform is evaporating in a firestorm.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-16-2008 @ 11:20AM
alan said...
Again Mr. Cohan is one of the few analysts/ financial writers who is candid and honest.
Pandit as CEO is ABSURD. The bed is burning and this clown is still yawning.
Employees are Waiting to follow a set of marching orders, ANY ORDERS, but amazingly none are forth coming.
His management style is totally ineffective because he is 1) afraid and 2) doesn't know what to do.
How about 1) reducing the dividend to demonstrate you are REALLY serious and committed 2) slashing the bloated top two tiers of management and have ZERO matrix management 3) get on with it and SELL the $400 BILLION of non-core assets he keeps talking about. At the very least, IDENTIFY the potential list of assets so that investors, the street and employees don't think this is total BS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN BECAUSE IT IS TOTAL BS. PANDIT, THE CFO, RUBIN, AND A FEW OTHERS NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH LEADERS LIKE DIMON AND KOVACEVICH !!!!!!!
7-16-2008 @ 1:26PM
Bill Dollar said...
Pandid is way in over his head and seems traumatized as what to do with the sinking ship. Well, someone should show some concern, like the board of directors for example and take action to replace him with a more qualified CEO. Rome is burning and they are all fiddling!
7-16-2008 @ 6:58PM
Andrea said...
Given the complex task at hand, I think Mr.Pandit has done everything that he could do so far. It will be nothing short of asinine to pull him out before the end of the year. Pandit works hard and he is brilliant, he will pull citi out of this muddle. I saw a few comments regarding Dimon. In the long run (well actually within a year) Dimon will have to be replaced infact because the Bear Sterns bad debts will come back to haunt him. I will probably ride the Dimon popularity wave and hang on to JPMorgan stock for a couple of more months and then it will be a definite sell for me, just in time before JP Morgan unravels.
7-16-2008 @ 7:02PM
Andrea said...
Another observation, if Peter Cohan could run banks, like he writes his blogs, citi, goldman or morgan stanley would probably have hired him to run their banks.
7-16-2008 @ 9:23PM
alan said...
I think one of the commentors works for the Citi PR department.
LET's see JPMorgan gets Bear Sterns for virtually free and with FED backing and that's not good.
Citi buys Old Lane for $800 mil, of which Pandy personally pockets $157 mil and 8 months later they have to close it down. Todate Citi has agreed to pay investors $1.7 Billlllion !!!! AH, ain't Citi brilliant
7-18-2008 @ 8:21PM
JB said...
Hi,
I am surprised that you have not taken the Citigroup results in good stead like the markets. It seems very clear that you are more interested in targeting Pandit. No doubt he has not been CEO before or lacks the experience, but what do you expect any CEO to do with legacy assets. He cannot just go and split the bank just because some journalists want him to. Its really surprising that you guys focus on every single meeting he calls. What credentials do you have to judge whether his meeting was a waste of time. I work in a company where I attend meetings everyday and some employees like it and some don't. That's the way companies function. If the only thing you have done is blogging, then you just done understand it.
Give the man some time before he can prove himself. I am sure this is not the best of markets to thrive. How about attacking Mr John Thain for the what's happening in Merrill. He took home 80 million last year. They have a larger write down than Citi. what has he been able to do? Is he not one of the "experienced" CEO's? Please be a little more rational in the way you write.
7-18-2008 @ 4:51PM
niallyg said...
I think Vikram answered this question today. He'll be around for a long time. Good job Vik. Citi Never Sleeps.
7-18-2008 @ 10:52PM
Andrea said...
This is addressed to the Peter who wrote this blog and thinks he can run some big bank, but nobody would hire him (sob!) because he thinks he knows everything and to allan the Dimon fan. Boy! if you guys are still hanging in with Dimon and his group and think the Bear ghost will just go away, please continue do that at least I can book my JPM profit thanks to the market altruists like you. Oh, Peter if you have some citi stocks to sell please email me, I am here to buy the new citi.