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Can Citi's Pandit last the year?

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The New York Times reports that Citigroup (NYSE: C) CEO Vikram Pandit is trying to buck up his troops with speeches on values. Since taking over last December 12, Citi's stock has lost over 50% of its value and has accumulated $45 billion in losses in the last year.

A few days after he started as CEO, I suggested that Citi might be a buy if it hits $15. I am sorry to say it, but I was wrong. We're at $15 today and I would not buy more at this price. With analysts expecting Citi to lose 31 cents a share when it reports on Friday, it seems to me that the downside risks to the stock weigh heavily. That's because it's missed estimates the last two quarters and Zacks thinks it could lose as much as 51 cents a share. But what worries me the most is what the Times reported about what appears to be a missing sense of urgency about how to fix Citi.

It describes how he spent time at a meeting in Armonk, NY, pushing "60 top managers to build on his seven rules, which he unveiled in the last few weeks. Those rules include items like "client connectivity," "transparency" and "product excellence."" Not surprisingly, in my view, the Times reports that "some Citigroup insiders roll their eyes at what they see as dull platitudes."

I think it's time for Pandit to split Citi into the good bank -- the international business is doing well -- and the bad bank -- just about everything else. I think it will need government help to fix the bad bank, which includes trillions in derivatives and hundreds of billions of assets that nobody wants to touch.

And given his apparent lack of eagerness to change Citi's corporate strategy, I question whether investors will have the patience for his push to change Citi's culture while its economic platform is evaporating in a firestorm.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup stock.

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Last updated: July 10, 2009: 12:48 PM

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