ExxonMobil (XOM) tumbles with oil futures on supply numbers

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) shares are falling today, pulled down by declining oil futures following a report the US supplies rose unexpectedly. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on XOM.

After hitting a one-year high of $96.12 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $77.55 in January. This morning, XOM opened at $81.99. So far today the stock has hit a low of $79.41 and a high of $81.99. As of 2:10, XOM is trading at $80.07, down $2.12 (-2.6%). The chart for XOM looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $90 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in one month as long as XOM is below $90 at August expiration. ExxonMobil would have to rise by more than 12% before we would start to lose money.

XOM hasn't been above $90 since late May and has shown resistance around $89 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of oil is driven back up soon, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance XOM might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $89 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in XOM.