Harley-Davidson rallies on Q2 earnings, but I'm not taking the ride

I've never used a motorcycle before in my life and don't know much about the vehicles, but I recognize that Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is an American icon whose product represents an aspirational brand. Even so, the company and its stock finds itself on hard times. The company's latest earnings report is reflective of the current economic malaise.

The first paragraph of the Q2 release tells me almost all I need to know. Revenues declined almost 3% to $1.57 billion. Net profit on a dollar basis dropped sharply by 23%, coming in at $222.8 million. Diluted earnings per share decreased by nearly 17% to $0.95. These numbers are not good. Also, in terms of cash flow, cash was used to fund operations for the first six months of the fiscal year as opposed to being generated. Yet another negative.

As I write this, Harley-Davidson's stock is up well over 7%. Am I impressed? Not enough to buy. Undoubtedly some of this rise can be attributed to the retreat in oil futures. But do I believe the economy will now be nice to Harley-Davidson? Not yet. The company, like General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), will still have a rough time selling things that require fuel to run. According to this article, Harley-Davidson did better than expected, but that's little comfort to me. You can make an argument that the stock is cheap, but at the very least, anyone interested in buying it (again, I'm not) better wait till the euphoric rally of the day has faded.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 01:35 PM

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