Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is reporting its fiscal third quarter financial results Monday, July 21, after the close. The question is not only what Apple will report, but also how the Street will react, and most important, is it a buy ahead of earnings?In terms of numbers, according to Thompson Financial's survey of analysts, Apple is expected to report net income of $972.6 million, or $1.08 per share, on sales of $7.4 billion. That's an 18.9% profit growth and a 37% sales growth.
Investors will be interested in the following:
iPhone sales numbers for Q3 may not interest investors that much, as the new 3G iPhone was released in fiscal Q4, and that is expected to be the main driver of iPhone sales going forward. The launch, despite its technical glitches was very successful, but investors might be concerned over Apple's ability to supply the demand. Already German and many U.S. stores have experienced shortages.
Then there's the very successful computer segment with Mac sales growing 38% year-over-year in Q2 (Apple's Q3) for the No. 3 spot in the U.S. after Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and HP (NYSE: HPQ), according to Gartner. Apple Mac sales represented an 8.5% market share. Investors are likely to be happy with results here.
Then there's the iPod. Many investors are worried the iPhone will cut into iPod sales. This will be one area where investors will focus their attention.
And lest we forget margins, gross margins were already a little disappointing last quarter. Now, Apple has cut the price of the iPhone even further. What will that do to margins? [Update: Many people have commented that Apple is getting subsidies (as opposed to the previous revenue-sharing model) and therefore the price cut wouldn't matter to margins. Some analysts, however, believe the subsidies will not be equal over time, and that Apple will be making less from the subsidies. You can see my comment below for more detail.] How has increasing raw material and energy prices affected Apple's costs? And how much of that will be offset by the falling dollar?
Guidance? While the Street is used to Apple guiding well below analyst expectations, there's a limit, of course, to the Street's tolerance, too. And will there be any hints of new product launches?
Then there is the puzzling Apple's share price. For some reason -- as I doubt there are many long-term bears on Apple out there -- the stock hasn't moved much the last few months. In fact, it was even left behind in the recent rally Wall Street experienced.
So, how investors will react Monday? Apple will undoubtedly beat (when hasn't it?) and give its usual below-estimates guidance. But I expect the report to have a few (somewhat disappointing) surprises, especially regarding margins, iPod sales and the amount of the beat. If you recall, BloggingStocks' Andrew Horowitz asked last quarter whether that was the last beat. Who knows, maybe he was right.
Investors could choose to react to specific statements or numbers initially, but I trust most will come to their senses in time. The question is when. Apple stock was down over 2% by midday to $168 today, undoubtedly enticing some to snap up shares at this price. Even though with the iPhone and Mac, as well as continued strong iPod sales, Apple is a long-term buy, I'd be careful to jump in ahead of earnings.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-18-2008 @ 2:18PM
Yev said...
Hey Melly, do you understand iPhone subsidy vs. cutting price???? Are you really this ignorant !!!
7-18-2008 @ 2:42PM
luvgoodpookie said...
Holly Cow - no one gives a rats BUTT what Apple did in the last Q. It is ALL about what is going to happen in the next Q. So many Jack-a-Butts forgot that Apple Blew away the street in Jan and gave a sorry guidance - FLOP! April they blew the street away again and lite guidance and it wasn't pretty then guided higher. All I care about is GUIDANCE!!! With the 3G coming online and new products soon to be released - BACK UP DA TRUCK !!!
HH
http://thehardheadfund.blogspot.com/
7-18-2008 @ 2:58PM
Constable Odo said...
RIM went down after earnings, Google went down after earnings, ergo Apple will follow them into the toilet. As far as trading is concerned those companies are joined at the hip. Apple couldn't possibly have spectacular earnings in this economy, so it won't impress WS or investors. Look for a 6% to 8% drop in share price. I'm long on Apple so don't accuse of my trying to manipulate stock. This is merely an observation based on past performance over the last year.
It won't stay down, so there shouldn't be much concern over the drop. Within a couple of weeks it'll be back to $175.
7-18-2008 @ 3:35PM
Johnsandokanrs said...
I would argue that launch of iPhone 3G will provide good resistance from further stock sliding. The crowd tracked on piqqem.com supports this pretty well.
7-18-2008 @ 5:57PM
Melly said...
There was a report that Apple gets $325 from AT&T for each iPhone it sells. $425 if sold in an Apple store. But even with this amount of subsidy (if true), that analyst said Apple gets the same revenue as from the previous revenue-sharing model .
I didn't hear how much other carriers are paying, but most analysts think the revenue from subsidies will be less.
Either way, the accounting will likely be confusing and I guess we'll have to wait until the end of a Q4 at least to see the impact on the revenue stream.
Margin concerns sill remain any way you slice it though.
7-19-2008 @ 8:25AM
Jim Hall said...
DUMB: ATT subsidizes the iPhone. Not Apple.
7-19-2008 @ 8:36AM
surfish said...
If you don't correct the subsidy goof, you are very remiss.
7-21-2008 @ 9:52AM
Andy said...
I am already down 2K on my apple investment ( http://www.savingtoinvest.com/2008/07/did-i-buy-apple-to-late-2k-loss-to-date.html) and as I lamented, I wish I had the bought the stock this week, rather than before the iPhone. Anyway, I will wait and see if my paper losses grow or disappear today. Hopefully they beat the streets views and give strong guidance. Also, Steve Jobs health is still a cause for concern.