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Merck earnings preview: No miracles expected

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Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) is set to report earnings Monday, July 21, ahead of the opening bell. According to First Call, analysts are looking for a profit of 83 cents on revenue of $6.05 billion, an improvement over the 82 cents per share it reported in the same quarter last year, but a decline over the $6.1 billion in sales. Last quarter, the company beat per-share earnings estimates, but disappointed in sales.

Merck has suffered some bad news this quarter:
  • The biggest blow was no doubt the FDA rejection of Merck's new cholesterol drug, Cordaptive. With so many drugs coming off patent, the drug company was relying on Cordaptive to contribute as much as $2 billion a year in sales.
  • Also, prescriptions for Vytorin, co-marketed with Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP), kept falling. While this was to be expected following the January released study suggesting Vytorin and Zetia may not work well as older generic statins, the impact could be larger than expected.
  • As for its cervical-cancer vaccine Gardasil, recently an analyst report from UBS questioned whether sales of the vaccine have met Wall Street estimates for the second quarter. UBS has proceeded to downgrade Merck to Neutral from Buy.
  • Then, only Thursday, Merck announced a program to resolve and fund the $4.85 billion settlement stemming from the Vioxx 50,000 lawsuits. More than 97 percent of eligible claimants now have initiated enrollment in the program and will start receiving checks beginning late next month. In a way, though, this is a good news/bad news sort of thing. Investors like it when outstanding issues are resolved.



Still, not everything was bad and Merck has also taken a few restructuring measures and had some positive reports too:
  • About a week after the FDA rejected its Cordaptive drug, the pharmaceutical company said it will eliminate 1,200 U.S. sales jobs, about 15% of the drugmaker's sales force. Wall Street reacted favorably.
  • Also, some analysts believe Merck has experienced strong sales in vaccines and Singulair.
  • And today, just before the earnings, Citi has initiated coverage on Merck with a Buy, placing a price target of $44 on the shares.
No doubt, the company has its work cut out for it, especially with blockbuster drugs coming off patent. But the stock has definitely been punished, down about 35% year-to-date. Merck shares are up about 1.5% today due to the Citi Buy call, but the question is what kind of growth it has to offer going forward. With no miracles expected Monday, Merck will likely continue where it left off, not a great favorite, but still not a pharma one can write off. Worth to watch.
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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 01:37 PM

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