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Split Fannie and Freddie into 'good' and 'bad' banks

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What bothers me about last weekend's vague plan to bail out Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) is that it fails to solve the basic problem they face. The problem is that nobody is willing to put a hard number on what proportion of the mortgages they guarantee are likely to keep making their monthly payments ("good assets") and which are not ("bad assets").

If we analyze that split, we may be able to lower the cost of bailing them out by putting the good assets in a "good bank" and the bad assets in a "bad bank." Shareholders would probably be happy to buy stock in the good bank. And owners of the bad bank could either write off their holdings or seek to refinance them. Similarly, the holders of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) around the world would no doubt be delighted to know what proportion of their MBSs are good and what proportion are bad.

I have heard scare tactics which suggest that Fannie and Freddie control half the mortgage market and we can't afford to let them fail. But what if 90% of their mortgages are likely to keep paying and 10% are not? We would then be faced with what to do about the $500 billion of bad MBSs that Fannie and Freddie supposedly guarantee. Could we afford to let $500 billion of MBS holders lose their investment? We had no trouble letting dot-com investors lose trillions of dollars worth of their investments back in 2000.

There was no public pressure for the government to step in and save those individual investors who lost their shirt investing in pets.com and all its peers. So why not just let those institutional investors -- who hold the dodgy MBSs that they should have analyzed more closely before buying -- take their lumps as well?

If we created a good bank/bad bank solution for Freddie and Fannie, we might find that the problem is small enough that it can be -- in the words of Grover Norquist, the conservative ideologue -- drowned in a bathtub. Then the financial system will be able to withstand the impact of the free market operating unfettered from the chains of a taxpayer-sponsored bailout of the institutional investors who bought MBSs that defaulted.

If the free market is good enough for citizens who buy dot-com stocks that crash, why not institutional investors who buy MBSs from Fannie and Freddie?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 12:28 AM

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