Oil got off to a strong start today, with prices at one point moving up as high as $130.69 a barrel as fears of supply disruptions in Iran have kept the market bullish for the time being.Prices cool off a bit and are now sitting at $129.40, but you can be sure that as long as the tension between the West and Iran persists, you are going to continue to see prices that just refuse to come back down towards any sort of comfortable level.
Last week, we saw a pretty sizable drop in oil prices (see chart at the end of this post), which could be the main reason why this morning's rally was not able to hold above the $130 mark. Investors are probably still a bit weary of betting that we have hit support yet. What really got the market moving early on was fresh threats from the U.S. that more sanctions would be imposed on oil-rich Iran should it not cease its current nuclear program.
I doubt I really need to rehash exactly what is playing out over in Iran, but in a nutshell, Iran continues to insist that its nuclear program is for purely peaceful means, and that it is merely looking to use nuclear energy. But America has doubts in this regard, and has been vocal expressing them. Lately, after Iran chose to flex its muscles by testing long-range missiles for two days, even more countries have started to express their concerns over the Iran's future intent.
Over this past weekend, Iran was in talks with six of the world's leading nations, including America for the first time, but the talks seemed to have little effect. While American spokesmen stated that the talks lacked any sort of progress, Iran stated that it was a step in the right direction. This leads many to believe that Iran is merely trying to buy itself as much time as possible.
The only real outcome of this meeting was that the six leading nations gave Iran two more weeks to comply, or face new sanctions. I don't think there is really much a question as to what Iran is going to do. It has already stated several times that it is not going to pull back on its nuclear program, no matter what sanctions come its way. Based on this, you have to assume that new sanctions will be proposed, and more threats will come from Iran, thus leading to more volatile oil prices in the not too distant future.
The one positive thing that we can talk about is that gasoline prices have been easing a bit. Over the weekend, the national average dropped a couple of cents, down to a little under $4.07 a gallon. I know what you are thinking -- $4.07 is nothing to really be happy about, and I agree, but at least we saw a bit of cooling in prices.
I was lucky enough to find a Hess gasoline station over the weekend where I filled up with $3.77 unleaded. That is the cheapest I have seen since I moved back to the States last month.
What sort of prices are you seeing in your area? Are you noticing gas prices cooling off, staying the same, or actually moving higher where you live? Let us know what you are experiencing.
Here is a chart of oil so you can see just what we were talking about earlier:












Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-21-2008 @ 1:29PM
Anon said...
The problem with Oil traders is they no understanding of the world geo-political situation.
Iranian sactions will never happen for basically two reason:
Russia and China
If we couldn't get sanction on Sudan or Zimbabwe, what makes you think you could get either of them to press sanctions on Iran when China gets most of its foreign oil from Iran.
Of course Russia, might be a wild card here because they'd love to see $200 a barrel.
Of course, how long will it take for Iran to realize they earn millions in oil profits every time they fire a missile off? If they were smart, they'd fire missiles on days they want to go long wiht oil and then make peace gestures on days they want to go short with oil.
7-21-2008 @ 3:36PM
william lindblad said...
Find out WHO sold on the 14,15, & 16th and WHY.
Possibilities for sell off:
a) fear of restraint/government action.
b) market & consumption slowing (low demand)
c) high price causing too much economic strain
d) world peace (I missed that one)
e) opportune moment for contract owners to sell
f) same as above, but sellers need to raise capital
Note that the selling all happened in a three day period when there was nothing on the wires to drive the oil market one way or another. The only thing out there was Cox's 30 day moratorium on
selected financial houses that are just about all - capital short. Would have been great timing.
As to today - traders are probably more concerned about the storm in the Gulf - than Iran. Oil jumped with the 3P weather update.