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Is the Federal Reserve solvent?

The latest balance sheet of the Federal Reserve makes me wonder whether it's solvent. That's because its balance sheet has clearly deteriorated in the last year. And with $40 billion in capital, that deterioration could take a big bite out of the Fed's capital.

Unfortunately, I do not know enough about how the Fed gets its capital or how it accounts for the value of its assets and liabilities to be able to do more than raise questions. But here are three things that concern me:

  • Declining asset quality. The total value of the U.S. Treasury securities on the Fed's balance sheet declined by $312 billion between July 2007 and this July -- a 43% drop in this highest quality asset.
  • Increase in shakier assets. During this same period, the balance in Term Auction Facilities -- the credit line that investment banks are using to get their shakier assets -- such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) off their balance sheets --increased from $0 to $150 billion. Another $29 billion in assets come from Maiden Lane, LLC -- the entity created for the Fed to take on the toxic waste that sank Bear Stearns.
  • High leverage. While the Fed has more capital backing up its assets than the typical investment bank -- which holds $1 of capital for every $32 in assets -- the Fed is still highly leveraged -- with only $1 of capital for every $23 of assets -- it borrows the rest. Put another way, if the Fed was forced to account for its balance sheet on a mark-to-market basis, a mere 4.5% decline in the value of the Fed's assets would wipe out its capital.

These observations raise questions in my mind:

  • Does the Fed need to mark its assets to market?
  • If so, what is the market value of the Term Auction Facility and the assets in Maiden Lane?
  • Given the possible loss in value in these riskier assets, does the Fed have sufficient capital?
  • Where does the Fed get its capital? Is that capital effectively unlimited?

Dr. Econ suggests that the Fed is supposed to be self-funding -- deriving its capital from interest it earns on the assets on its balance sheet. But with the value of its U.S. Treasury securities declining, is the interest it earns on the riskier securities it took on in the last year sufficient to offset the loss of income from the treasury securities? And if that income is not enough to replenish its capital, where does it go for more?

Please comment if you have answers or other thoughts on this.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 08:01 AM

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