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Is the Federal Reserve solvent?

Posted Jul 21st 2008 10:00AM by Peter Cohan

The latest balance sheet of the Federal Reserve makes me wonder whether it's solvent. That's because its balance sheet has clearly deteriorated in the last year. And with $40 billion in capital, that deterioration could take a big bite out of the Fed's capital.

Unfortunately, I do not know enough about how the Fed gets its capital or how it accounts for the value of its assets and liabilities to be able to do more than raise questions. But here are three things that concern me:

These observations raise questions in my mind:

Dr. Econ suggests that the Fed is supposed to be self-funding -- deriving its capital from interest it earns on the assets on its balance sheet. But with the value of its U.S. Treasury securities declining, is the interest it earns on the riskier securities it took on in the last year sufficient to offset the loss of income from the treasury securities? And if that income is not enough to replenish its capital, where does it go for more?

Please comment if you have answers or other thoughts on this.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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