The latest balance sheet of the Federal Reserve makes me wonder whether it's solvent. That's because its balance sheet has clearly deteriorated in the last year. And with $40 billion in capital, that deterioration could take a big bite out of the Fed's capital.
Unfortunately, I do not know enough about how the Fed gets its capital or how it accounts for the value of its assets and liabilities to be able to do more than raise questions. But here are three things that concern me:
- Declining asset quality. The total value of the U.S. Treasury securities on the Fed's balance sheet declined by $312 billion between July 2007 and this July -- a 43% drop in this highest quality asset.
- Increase in shakier assets. During this same period, the balance in Term Auction Facilities -- the credit line that investment banks are using to get their shakier assets -- such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) off their balance sheets --increased from $0 to $150 billion. Another $29 billion in assets come from Maiden Lane, LLC -- the entity created for the Fed to take on the toxic waste that sank Bear Stearns.
- High leverage. While the Fed has more capital backing up its assets than the typical investment bank -- which holds $1 of capital for every $32 in assets -- the Fed is still highly leveraged -- with only $1 of capital for every $23 of assets -- it borrows the rest. Put another way, if the Fed was forced to account for its balance sheet on a mark-to-market basis, a mere 4.5% decline in the value of the Fed's assets would wipe out its capital.
These observations raise questions in my mind:
- Does the Fed need to mark its assets to market?
- If so, what is the market value of the Term Auction Facility and the assets in Maiden Lane?
- Given the possible loss in value in these riskier assets, does the Fed have sufficient capital?
- Where does the Fed get its capital? Is that capital effectively unlimited?
Dr. Econ suggests that the Fed is supposed to be self-funding -- deriving its capital from interest it earns on the assets on its balance sheet. But with the value of its U.S. Treasury securities declining, is the interest it earns on the riskier securities it took on in the last year sufficient to offset the loss of income from the treasury securities? And if that income is not enough to replenish its capital, where does it go for more?
Please comment if you have answers or other thoughts on this.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-21-2008 @ 11:03AM
william lindblad said...
They are solvent as long as the U.S. government remains so.
If you really want some fun - establish a hypothetical comparison of the U.S. government vs an individual citizen, based upon debt load and derive a credit score. Use the same criteria that the 3 credit bureaus use.
The government cannot get a mortgage.
7-21-2008 @ 11:44AM
David said...
lindblad: The big difference is that the government can take money from you at gunpoint legally. This means that the credit bureaus would have to take the average American's credit score as their score.
7-21-2008 @ 11:48AM
David said...
Question: If you don't understand how the Fed operates, should you be blogging or even owning stocks? I suppose one can drive a car without understanding the engine...
7-21-2008 @ 12:04PM
ajgorm said...
The blind leading the rich is more like whats going on. Blind to the fact it takes more to run a country than merely saying we need regulations. We have a national debt and the best way to insure our success is to run it as high as we can then dont pay it back.
7-21-2008 @ 12:32PM
Michael Schneider said...
The US has a lot of things it can do to prevent problems. Taxes are relatively low so in a worst case scenario it is likely there will be some tax increases even though it is politically difficult. Energy taxes are far lower than in other countries so there is room for a tax raise there if we are serious about solving the long term energy problems we face. Likely there will be some problem in getting the Bush tax cuts extended no matter who gets elected-- Obama or McCain-- the issue is what can be salvaged. The Democrats control Congress thanks to some Congressional indiscretions and the best we can hope for is that the dividend cuts and some of the long term cap gains cuts will be kept for a good part of the investing public. In any case, taxes will go higher and some of the tax money might actually be put to good. That's not great for the economy which will remain in a slow growth mode but it doesn't spell disaster either.
7-21-2008 @ 12:40PM
taojones said...
in 1909 heads of 12 banks met on Jeckel island and started the federal reserve it was to provide specie (dollars) for banks that at that time were printing their own bills when Nixon floated us off the gold standard the treasury no longer could issue "silver certificates" instead we went to federal reserve "notes" basically fancy checks the fed prints em up and gives them to naughty banks who do not have the !) % of cash in "reserve" to handle the day to day business of the bank (which is mostly done on checks which could considered "personal dollar bills" when the fed gets paid back the money simply "disappears" it no longer exists along with a certain amount of "interest" charged by the fed its only asset is government IOU's or "bonds" the currency is basically backed by the national debt (now do you feel better?) the sick thing is when the fed gives a bank 1 million dollars at the discount window the bank "deposits " that money as a "reserve" and by law can loan out 10 times that or 10 million in loans (don't forget most mortgages are backed by the 10% deposit you hand the bank they as well as the fed "create" the money out of thin air to do the job at hand most of the money the fed gave the banks was used to narrow the "spread" for the bank (to reduce losses of reserve) and was not funneled out to joe sixpac for new loans (big surprise)the federal Reserve is not a government entity (find which branch of government it is under i dare you)
7-22-2008 @ 12:35PM
W. B. Wilhite said...
Great nations can become insolvent. Just go ask Pharoah or Caesar, and they'll tell you all about it.
7-22-2008 @ 12:50PM
David Huston said...
Makes the Fed out to be the US financial trash can. Little wonder if its balance sheet smells, but, after all, and according to long-standing Republican principles, the government can always print more money to square up the Fed's balance sheet.
7-22-2008 @ 2:30PM
Nyer said...
We created this mess by fiscal policy (tax cuts plus spending and borrowing) and are trying to solve it with monetary policy. Fiscal policy affects the location of money in the economy, monetary policy affects the volume of money in the economy. If the economy were a balloon, fiscal policy squeezed the balloon in the middle, pushing money to the top (supply side), and to the bottom (the national debt). We are trying to solve the problem by adding more air (money) to the balloon, which will eventually pop the balloon (a national default/worthless money) without solving the problem. Raise taxes where they were cut and cut spending (e.g, the war). For those who think raising taxes is the worst thing in a recession, recall that cutting taxes and federal spending in the Depression worked not because federal spending is magic, but because it moved the money from where it was to where it wasn't. The govt wasn't in hock to the point of insolvency then. To solve this mess, we need to move the money from where it is (increase taxes on the supply side and cut spending) to where it isn't (the federal govt and everywhere else).
Raise taxes. Otherwise we default and you can use your dollars to cover the holes in your shoes.
7-22-2008 @ 2:53PM
louis russo said...
FIRST WE NEED TO ASK THOSE THE FED AND IT'S CHAIRMAN HAVE ANY CREDIABLITY.
ANSWER NO
LR CHAS. SC
7-22-2008 @ 4:50PM
John Daniels said...
Ben made it quite clear where the capital comes from before he was appointed. "we have a printing press and a helicopter." That's why he's called Helicopter Ben.
7-29-2008 @ 10:19AM
mbm said...
The real question is, "What has the Fed ever done since it's creation in 1913 to earn any money"?
It runs a printing press, buys bonds, lends pieces of paper to banks for interest, and then buys more bonds to start the cycle over again. They have never produced anything, so why should they have any assets?