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Trade idea for Whole Foods (WFMI) upgrade

Posted Jul 21st 2008 1:38PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Good news, Whole Foods Market (WFMI), Options, Technical Analysis

WFMI logoWhole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) shares are trading higher today after an analyst at Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Equal-weight from Underweight, as noted by Eric Buscemi. If you agree with Morgan Stanley and think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WFMI.

After hitting a one-year high of $53.65 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $20.18 last week. WFMI opened this morning at $23.27. So far today the stock has hit a low of $22.37 and a high of $24.06. As of 12:45, WFMI is trading at $22.50, up $1.12 (5.2%). The chart for WFMI looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $19 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 15.6% return in just four weeks as long as WFMI is above $19 at August expiration. Whole Foods would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money.

WFMI hasn't been below $20 at all in the past year and has shown support around $21 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 8/5) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its year low between $20 and $21.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in WFMI.

Tags: Investors Observer, InvestorsObserver, options, upgrade, WFMI, whole foods market, WholeFoodsMarket

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