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Nokia (NYSE: NOK) shares are falling today after international wireless carrier Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) warned that FY2008 sales will likely fall below the company's forecast between 39.8 billion pounds ($79.7 billion) and 40.7 billion pounds. VOD blamed widespread economic weakness for the lagging sales, and if the wireless provider isn't doing well, then it could be a bad sign for NOK too. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on NOK.After hitting a one-year high of $42.22 in November, the stock hit a one-year low of $23.58 earlier this month. This morning, NOK opened at $26.36. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.26 and a high of $26.72. As of 1:10, NOK is trading at $26.41, down $0.91 (-3.3%). The chart for NOK looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $31 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 14.3% return in three months as long as NOK is below $31 at October expiration. Nokia would have to rise by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
NOK hasn't been above $31 since April and has shown resistance around $27.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the economic situation gets better by October, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance NOK might find around $30, where it topped out in May.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NOK or VOD.
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