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Trade idea for Salesforce.com downgrade

CRM logoSalesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) shares are falling today after an analyst at Citigroup downgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Buy" based on the stock's valuation. Investors are shrugging off Thomas Weisel's "Buy" initiation in favor of the Citi downgrade. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CRM.

After hitting a one-year low of $37.24 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $75.21 in June. This morning, CRM opened at $67.15. So far today the stock has hit a low of $64.70 and a high of $67.23. As of 1:05, CRM is trading at $65.90, down $3.48 (-5.0%). The chart for CRM looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $80 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in four weeks as long as CRM is below $80 at August expiration. CRM would have to rise by more than 21% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

CRM hasn't been above $76 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $70 recently. This trade could be risky if company's earnings (due out in mid-August) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance CRM might find around $75, where it topped out twice in June.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CRM.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 08:04 AM

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