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Earnings preview: Does Kraft have the recipe for a successful quarter?

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On Monday July 28, Kraft (NYSE: KFT) will be reporting its earnings results for the second quarter. Kraft is a well-known manufacturer of supermarket foodstuffs. We all know the brands: Oreo cookies, Nabisco, Oscar Meyer and many, many others.


It should be a defensive stock, just like Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) or PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), right? Well, it is and it isn't. It's defensive in the sense that, as the cliche goes, people still want to eat their favorite foods even during recessionary times. It isn't in the sense that the stock is down by 16% (as of this writing) in the one-year time period. It does have a nice dividend yield, however, and Warren Buffet seems to like it.

What should investors be looking for on Monday? Well, they should definitely be looking at the margins. Is Kraft navigating this inflationary period in as efficient a manner as possible? I think Kraft will do OK in this regard. I'm not expecting any sort of wide expansion of gross margin, but I think management will report stability in this area.

Hershey (NYSE: HSY) , which recently reported numbers for its own quarter (see Brent Archer's idea for a trade involving Hershey options), did well in keeping margin-erosion at bay. Hershey also beat estimates by a penny. Considering that Kraft beat analyst estimates last quarter, that it has a good history of going beyond expectations and that Hershey was able to beat, then I would have to say that Kraft should have no problem beating on Monday. Hershey has had its share of troubles lately, keep in mind.

Also, according to Earnings.com, Kraft earned 50 cents per share a year ago, and the call is for 50 cents per share on Monday. It shouldn't be too difficult to eke out a little growth, should it?

Investors will also want to look for news on price increases and volume trends. Many companies these days have been talking about passing on commodity-cost pressures to consumers, and Kraft is no different. Will the public take to such increases? As I alluded to before, Kraft has a powerhouse stable of products. People who love Ritz crackers will pay whatever price they need to pay to keep the item in their pantries. Will Kraft have any new marketing campaigns to keep up the brand equity? This is also crucial stuff.

In terms of Kraft being a trade going into earnings, I see that as a challenging situation at best. Consider the following: McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) sold off a little when it released its earnings; concern about the margins was mentioned. You'll note that McDonald's did very well on the bottom line, beating by 8 cents. Yet, it wasn't enough to overshadow other issues, and the stock did nothing. Personally, I think McDonald's deserved a higher bid on the results. But hey, it doesn't matter what I think, the market will do what it pleases. And when the market is volatile, a new thing pleases it (or irritates it) each day.

That's why I'm not infatuated with a Kraft-earnings trade. Maybe McDonald's sold off because it's been a stronger stock and investors were looking for an excuse to take some money off the table. Still, I'm not convinced. The best thing to do might be to wait until after earnings are issued to see the hard numbers and the reaction to the stock. Then, if you're still interested in Kraft, you could do something at that point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 09:41 AM

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