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U.S. existing home sales fall to 10-year low

Posted Jul 24th 2008 12:58PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Forecasts, Bad news, Housing, Recession

Sales of existing homes in June fell 2.6%, to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4.99 million - - the lowest level in 10 years - - the National Association of Realtors announced Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected June existing home sales to total a 4.94 million annualized rate. The annualized rate totaled 4.99 million units in May; a year ago, in June 2007, it was 5.75 million units.

Meanwhile, the national, median, existing home price for all housing types was $215,100 in June, down 6.1% from a year ago when the median was $229,000.

Existing home sales varied by region. Sales rose 1% in West, but fell 6.6% in the Northeast, 3.4% in Midwest, and 3.1% in the South.

'Bad time to be a home seller'

Economist Peter Dawson said the June existing home sales statistic shows that the housing market remains a buyer's market.

"No question, it's a bad time to be a home seller. Existing home prices continue to slide in most markets, and there's little in the data to suggest a turnaround, given the U.S. economy's doldrums," Dawson said. "My advise for those who are in the market to buy and don't have to buy a house right now - - wait it out, quarter by quarter. Prices in your market could drop considerably."

Equally significant, inventories - - unsold homes – totaled 11.1 months at the current sales rate, up from a 10.8-month supply in May. A typical, healthy housing market has a 3-4 month supply of unsold homes on the market.

Economic Analysis: A slight rise in existing home sales earlier this spring proved to be a blip, which underscores the need to evaluate the housing market over 3,4,5 months - - not simply on one monthly data point. Further, it's also difficult to assess the housing market solely on June, July, August data: they're skewed higher, due to families moving when grade school children are out of school. With the above in mind, we'll need to wait until October before one can gauge, with confidence, the extent of the housing recession. For now, it's clear that prices and sales are continuing to soften in most markets, with a recovery not in sight.

Tags: existing home sales, housing, inthenews, inventories, median prices, National Association of Realtors

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