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Worst 10-year performers: Gannett Co.'s performance not fit to print

In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade – what went wrong, and what happens next.

It's possible that you may have heard some rumors about the death of print media. As it turns out, they're more or less true. Not long after Al Gore invented the internet during the 2000 elections, readers began defecting from traditional print media toward internet-based alternatives. The immediacy and convenience of online publications have sucked the lifeblood -- and the ad revenue -- from traditional, more easily folded newspapers.

And, if you're looking for a company that's waist-deep in the print-periodicals business, look no further than Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI). The Virginia-based outfit prints daily newspapers that are published around the country, spanning from USA Today to the Detroit Free Press to my own local fish-wrapper, The Cincinnati Enquirer.

What went wrong? At number 23 on our list of the S&P 500's worst 10-year laggards, GCI lost 70% of its value during the decade ended June 30, 2008. The stock peaked at $91.38 in April 2004, and its performance since then can best be described as "prolonged death throes." Sure, there were a few upbeat quarters mixed in, but the industry trend was (and is) inescapable. According to the Newspaper Association of America, circulation revenue has dropped consistently in the past five years. GCI's decline on the charts has been just as consistent; since June 2004, the stock's 10-month and 20-month moving averages have ushered the stock ever southward.

What next? The ugly fundamental outlook hasn't changed much for Gannett. Recently, the company said that its first-half earnings in 2008 were down 26% from the first half of 2007. In the second quarter, the media firm said it took an accounting write-down of $2.6 billion to $2.9 billion to reflect the company's declining market value (the exact amount will be recorded in an amended filing this August).

GCI's downtrend has proven itself more or less unstoppable during the past 14-ish years, but the shares caught a slight bounce in mid-July after tapping the $15 region. This level provided support for the equity as far back as mid-1988 and late 1990, and appears to be holding steady as a lifeline for GCI. Until the stock truly stages a rebound, though, the sidelines are a popular spot -- Zacks reports that 80% of analysts maintain a skeptical "hold" rating.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the weekly video series Option Basics on SchaeffersResearch.com.

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Last updated: September 06, 2008: 01:47 PM

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