In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.
As a mid-market department store, Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) was in the wrong place at the wrong time when a slowdown in spending spread across the U.S. A staggering spike in energy and food prices, as well as a nationwide foreclosure crisis, first hit consumers during the first half of 2007. The middle class couldn't help but notice its discretionary income shrinking with each paycheck, and average Americans found themselves with fewer and fewer reasons to plan a trip to the mall.
What went wrong? At number 21 on our list of SPX laggards, DDS lost 72% of its value during the 10-year period that ended June 30, 2008. The equity's sharpest losses have also been its most recent; after hitting a near-term peak of $40.56 in May 2007, DDS took a 71.4% haircut over the next 13 months. The decline was sparked by a weak earnings report on the 23rd of that month, when Dillard's missed the Street's earnings expectations by a staggering 20 cents per share.
Last August, Dillard's proved once again that analysts were too optimistic. The company lost 31 cents per share in its second quarter, compared to expectations for a loss of just 1 penny per share. In April 2008, the beleaguered department store narrowly dodged a proxy battle by awarding a board seat to a nominee proposed by irate shareholder group Barington Capital. Properly chastised by the sharp decline in its share price, Dillard's also announced plans to shutter underperforming stores, reduce capital expenditures, and ramp up the quality of its merchandise.
What next? There are certainly some pockets of opportunity in the beaten-down retail sector, but DDS is not the most attractive. The equity is down about 40% year-to-date, and remains stifled by resistance from its 10-week moving average.
While 100% of analysts following the stock consider it a "hold," there are still hints of lingering optimism that could unwind. Already, during a few days in mid-July, DDS was hit with price-target reductions from both Credit Suisse and S&P Equity Research. Any additional bearish commentary from brokerage firms could smack DDS even lower during the near term.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the weekly video series Option Basics on SchaeffersResearch.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-25-2008 @ 3:55PM
Sandy said...
I love shopping @ Dillard's. Just wish there were more of them in California and closer to home.
7-28-2008 @ 10:48AM
Marketing Dept. said...
Says Richard Behar, President of Capitol Clothing Corp. , manufacturers of Boys Outfits under the brands of Little Baron and Capitol Boys. "This is just a cycle. Now is the time to invest in many Blue Chip stocks that are low. Our country is going thru a recession but this is the USA. the most resilient and powerful country in the world. We will be back strong !"