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Barron's covers Intuitive Surgical with wet blanket

This week's Barron's (subscription required) finally had Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) on its cover, and cover it it did, but with a wet blanket.

The stock is down in early trading today, but that is probably warranted given the runup last week when it jumped $52 in one day after it reported one more mind boggling quarter. I only exaggerate slightly as the company beat estimates by 10 cents a share and increased margins in all areas, when I reported then, Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical beat the street AGAIN!

The Barron's story, Surgical Robot Cuts Both Ways by Andrew Barry questions the stock's valuation and the company's projections of expanding sales and service figures.

Mr. Barry points out that the stock is trading at sky high valuations and that any disappointment could result in a 25% drop in the stock price. I would remind ISRG fans and stock watchers that this has happened on many occasions without any bad news. It had reached a high around $360 per share and then traded down until it took a dive into the $240s when Wall Street decided that the slowing economy and tighter fiscal restraint on the part of hospital administrators would dampen ISRG's prospects in the second half of 2008.

Last week's earnings report dispelled that sentiment quickly and the company gave encouraging projections for the rest of the year. After reading the article, I came away with many positives. There still remains no competition for this company that 'owns the space' of surgical wards, by owning the patents for the hardware, software and replacement parts, as well as providing training and follow-on service -- all at high profit margins.

Mr. Barry also has interviewed many practicing professionals and patients that were very favorable. So it comes down to valuation alone. I agree with Mr. Barry that the current price is very dear, but the issue is not as simple as that. Here the story falls short. It includes a detailed discussion of the size of the market and various perspectives on how much business there is in the next few years but it leaves out a discussion of the different perspectives investors should consider.

For example, if you own the stock now and do not expect to need the money you have invested in the next three years, then you can be long the stock without much to be worried about. If you do not own the stock, then perhaps you put it on your watch-list and buy it later after a dip. Remember you do not have to own anything, including ISRG. The price you pay is important.

If you own the stock and might need the money for something in the next year then it probably is advisable to take something off the table to cover your needs, don't be greedy and take some gains now. If you are considering selling in the next six months anyway it might also be advisable to speak with your tax advisers because of the capital gains consequences and the strong likelihood that they will be higher in 2009.

Before the earnings report ISRG closed at $280.23. The stock closed at $322.07 Friday. It opened today at $314.33 and is trading at about that now 1:14 PM EST. FINAL: $308.23, down -13.84 (-4.30%)

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of ISRG.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 08:18 AM

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