Does America really need an economy that depends on creating new bubbles to get us out of the mess caused by the bursting of old ones? Is it possible to replace this with an economic system that generates growth without bubbles? I think the answers to these questions are No and Yes.
The most recent example of this bubble economy is the way the dot-com frenzy's aftermath was replaced by a debt bubble, which was focused heavily on a now-imploding mortgage-backed securities (MBS) industry. The dot-com bubble expanded thanks to the public's insatiable appetite for dot-com IPOs, regardless of whether the issuer was or could become profitable. The MBS bubble grew thanks to rock-bottom interest rates, rising housing prices and institutional investor demand for higher "risk-free" yields, all of which ignored the cost of a market reversal.
But the MBS part of the current bubble may not be the last to burst. There are also the leveraged loans that fueled a boom in private equity -- a market which has lost 70% of its business in the last year. Thankfully, massive defaults in such loans have yet to occur. The New York Times reports that capital-starved banks are starting to limit commercial and industrial loans that fuel normal business expansion. It reports that such loans have dropped 3% since 2007, from $3.36 trillion to $3.27 trillion.
The most interesting part of this article is the quotes. For instance, John W. Kiefer, chief executive of First Capital, a private commercial lender, said, "Before, they wouldn't verify income and they were loose on the valuations of collateral. Now they're tightening down on the ability to repay. They go off the reservation, and now they come back to basics. It's preservation for many of them at this point. It's survival."
What causes these bubbles to expand and contract? Here are five sources:
- Securitization - If a bank sells a loan rather than keeping it on its books, it does not care whether the borrower pays back the loan. Now that the securitization market is dead, banks can't sell the loans they originate so they pay more attention to whether the borrower can repay.
- Leverage - During the boom, the typical investment bank and hedge fund had $1 of capital for every $32 in assets, meaning that it borrowed the other $31. This level of borrowing expands profits when the bubble is expanding and magnifies the losses during a contraction. If these financial institutions had more of a cushion of capital, they would not need to look to taxpayers to bail them out of their business mistakes.
- Fear of getting left behind - During an expansion, financial institutions look at their peers and they wonder why they are not doing as well. Their CEOs latch onto one type of activity and force their people to copy that one area. This is how Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) got to be such big player in trading MBSs -- its former CEO thought Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) was ahead due to its exposure there and he wanted to manage his Goldman envy.
- Young staff - When the bubble pops, financial institutions fire the people who made the loans and originated the deals. Many of the people they fire have the experience to understand what went right and what went wrong. And when the banks fire these people, they lose the wisdom that could keep the banks from making the same mistakes again. When bubbles begin to expand again, the financial institutions hire a new crop of young bankers to bring in business. And this new crop lacks the wisdom of the ones that got fired.
- Heads-I-win, tails-you-lose pay - As I have pointed out here and here, financial institutions pay people for the volume of business they bring in. This encourages them to close as many big deals as they can and to ignore the quality of those deals. When the deals go bad, nobody asks them to fork over their multi-million dollar bonuses to cover the losses of the deals they originated.
If we replace each of these things, we can end the bubbles. Here's how that would work:
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End securitization - As I pointed out here, securitization's costs are enormous and its benefits are hard to quantify. But if financial institutions are required to hold on to the loans they originate, they will be far more careful about extending credit. This will keep their losses at a manageable level.
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Independent monitoring of adherence to credit standards - In the wake of popping bubbles, chastened bankers always spend time updating their procedure manuals with very conservative guidelines about how much they will lend to borrowers based on their ability to repay and how much capital they need as a cushion against problems. To prevent bubbles, we need well-financed, independent, and rigorous monitoring of how well financial institutions actually apply these standards. And if they don't follow those standards, we should give the independent monitors the power to make sure they do.
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Experienced staff - Financial institutions need to keep a sufficient number of managers with the experience of having lived through previous bubbles who will guide those who lack that wisdom. Ultimately it is up to the financial institutions themselves to make the right decisions. And those decisions are likely to be made by people with the experience to know when to say no.
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Equitable pay - As I've posted, I think we should put bankers' pay in an escrow account. If the loans and deals they originate perform well -- after, say, five years -- then they get their bonuses. If not, the funds in the escrow account go to compensate bank shareholders for the losses of the bad loans and deals they originated. This, more than anything else, would align the interests of those who bring in business with those of the entire financial system.
These changes will cause the people who issue credit to care about the long-term profitability of the financial system because their careers will depend on it.
Now all we need is for a big enough crisis in the U.S. to get Washington to examine the root causes of bubbles and to take these changes seriously so we can end these costly cycles of bubble expansion and collapse.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-28-2008 @ 1:36PM
william lindblad said...
Peter, it's a great theory. Please keep in mind that Marx and Engles put a lot of time into the people and economic concepts. Das Kapital is a tome and covers all aspects. Hwever, they had the same problem that rocks all, from Voltaire and Jefferson to Smith and Gresham people!
In an ideal world all would work, but there exists larceny in just about each and all of the human race and when it comes to money it becomes enhanced. There is also the adventure spirit. The 1849 goldrush is the best known, but if you compare this to the dot.com and currrent housing there is little difference. These have been going on for ages and it is a human trait.
The only way that these types of situations can be prevented is direct oversight and intervention. Failure arises because the watchdogs are human and wind up with a fat bone themselves. The current housing relief bill is doing just that - replace one watchdog with another. While there is public attention everyone will do there job. Twenty years from now, when all of this is forgotten, it might start again. All of the current failures can be addressed and the loopholes closed but this will not prevent the human mind from finding new ways to get around the obstacles.
To believe, you only have to look at internet security - updates are daily.
7-28-2008 @ 1:47PM
W. B. Wilhite said...
I like some of those ideas, especially the one tying long-term performance to compensation. Sometimes, the simplest and clearest idea is pure genius.
7-28-2008 @ 1:47PM
Miller said...
Yes, bankers' pay should be placed in an escrow account for 5 years or more, to see if loans have been paid off. Great idea.
7-28-2008 @ 2:48PM
william lindblad said...
I decided to return to this post for the second reason, but read the others and have to comment on the idea of a 5 year escrow. This is a great IDEA but it infringes on the very concept of free market capitalism. Like I said, great idea, and we could also apply this concept to ALL private investor held business. With this type of plan in place execs. would not walk away with golden parachute packages. Great idea - with the glide path of a rock.
The reason I returned here was your comment on the firing of experience and the business being taken over by youth. You have a major point. I am the only one with this theory, but all are welcome to check the historical record. Reasons given for the great depression are many, but none contain this: One of the main reason was the removal of experience that may have constrained the "roaring twenties". The Spanish flu of 1918-20 was a pandemic that killed a full one-third of the worlds population, but it had a peculiar twist. The majority of deaths were in the 30-45 year old bracket. It left this country with a youthful population. I rest my case. It's fact.
7-28-2008 @ 3:23PM
tygrecat said...
We need to set a limit on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's ability to be used as a dumping ground for worthless paper created by junk loans. They hold far too many worthless mortgages for anyone to believe that a reasonable person, with skills in this business, actually put in the proper jurisprudence before accepting these from the banks. Our government gets too caught up in these bubbles building also, and fails to provide any regulatory guidance until the druken party is over.
7-28-2008 @ 3:56PM
John Kuchta said...
Why is it so difficult? Speedy adoption of the FAIR TAX would solve our economic troubles in one fell swoop. By eliminating personal AND corporate taxes and institutuing a 22% sales tax, America becomes a tax haven for entrepreneurs from all over the world. They bring their wealth, ideas and businesses with them. EVERYONE pays tax from the newest illegal immigrant to the toniest trust fund baby. If you live here you're forced to support the country. The method of collection is easy since it's "point of sale." Mike Huckabee was right when he proposed abolishing the IRS and instituting the FAIR TAX. Why not give it a try? What do we have to lose? The IRS?
7-28-2008 @ 4:10PM
cnsjjc said...
Greed! Greed! That's the only problem we need to solve. As Mohatma Gandhi said, earth has enough resources to satisfy all man's need, but not enough to satisfy their greed. The salary escrow is a great idea, but it won't happen. Why? Because of Greed.
7-28-2008 @ 4:24PM
Nyer said...
This particular succession of bubbles is a direct result of supply side economics and failed fiscal policy, followed by an attempt to correct it by failed monetary policy, plus the pernicious influence of "free market" religion. Cut taxes and push all the money to the supply side, and what you get is speculation, not productive economic activity (although there is always some, and some new technology, just enough to cover the big lie of supply side theory with a thin veneer of credibility). When you give a lot of money to the already well off, you get a lot of speculation, which rushes first from one area to another. The money will not come back into the larger, broader more productive economy with reversing supply side. Raise taxes where they were cut and redistribute the past insane push of all the money in the economy into the financial markets. End of bubbles. For a generation or two until it is all forgotten again.
7-28-2008 @ 11:03PM
Oren Grossi said...
The best way to escrow bankers’ bonuses would be to pay them with non-tradable stock. This could help them focus on the long term interest of the business. As stockholders they might look forward to increasing dividends. We have bubbles because everyone’s looking to increase price instead of dividends. Stock prices reward ex –stockholders. Dividends reward current stockholders.