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Earnings preview: Will Viacom's results boost its stock?

Viacom (NYSE: VIA) is due to report Q2 earnings on Tuesday, July 29, after the market closes. What will be in store for the media company and fierce competitor of Disney (NYSE: DIS), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)? According to data at Zacks.com, the company may report something in the vicinity of $0.61 per share, which would be good for 12% growth on the bottom line. Viacom has a reasonable chance of beating the estimate, based on past history.

There will be a few key elements that investors will be looking at. One product that has been a driving factor for Viacom's success is, believe it or not, a video game. Rock Band, which competes against Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVID) Guitar Hero titles, has been a boon for the company, and the MTV segment specifically. The game, which is distributed by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), will have a sequel coming out this fall, and I hope management enlightens Wall Street about how it feels it will do against Activision Blizzard's new iteration of its own musical-gaming system and how it plans to promote it. Will there be any special synergies between MTV and the sequel? Watch for data on the number of song downloads that Rock Band is fueling.

When I took a look at Viacom's last earnings report, I found that the media-networks division was doing great business. Its operating income had jumped 15%. The media segment, which includes the valuable MTV Networks, should do well again in Q2, and I would expect something close to this kind of growth rate. However, I would be watching for signs from management that the economy may be affecting advertising. Going forward, this will be the challenge for MTV, Nickelodeon, etc. And speaking of Nickelodeon, are there any initiatives on the board to counteract the incredible growth that the Disney Channel has seen thanks to properties such as Hannah Montana? Investors should listen to the conference call for information about marketing plans and new shows, as well as merchandising schemes for the upcoming holiday season.



And then there's the movie division. Last quarter, that segment reported an operating loss. This quarter, I don't expect too much from Paramount studios. Revenues should be driven by hits that the company distributed. Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda scored at the summer box office. Oh, and let's not forget Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. However, I'd presume that launching the films will have eaten up a lot of those revenues in terms of marketing expenditures (also, I'd presume the partners and stars attached to these projects will be taking some of the first-dollar-gross). The real windfall will come later with home-video distribution. So, while I expect movies to do better this time around than last time around, I think the media division will still outdo it. Investors will also want to be updated on Viacom's relationship with Steven Spielberg. The director is currently putting together financing for a new film slate. I'm also curious about comments management may have for the whole content debacle between it and Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) YouTube. Viacom has engaged legal action against YouTube, as noted in this article from Tom Taulli. Viacom needs to find peace with this important website, and figure out a way to leverage the tons of eyeballs that flock there for a quick-clip fix.

So, will the Q2 numbers boost Viacom's stock? After all, the shares may be cheap, as I recently mused. But I think any short-term boost stimulated by the earnings report (if one occurs) will fade rapidly in this market. The stock has been weak, and it is much closer to the 52-week low than the 52-week high. And for those who follow CBS (NYSE: CBS), which used to be part of the old Viacom conglomerate, one has to wonder if the high yield on CBS will be more attractive to investors. You at least get paid to wait on that one. Unless Viacom can cook up some great acquisition plan, or leverage its content in new money-generating ways that will change the perception of analysts, the stock may not go anywhere for a while.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard, Disney, and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 08:22 AM

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