TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says don't blame the currency, it's all about supply and demand. The dollar.
How often do we hear that this currency as the culprit of the m.o. of everything that the "sophisticated" types think is happening. It is almost conspiratorial:
- the Fed raises rates;
- commodity prices come in because they are a hedge against the weak dollar;
- oil fluctuates in price because of the dollar;
- the dollar controls stocks and bonds.
But the dollar and oil? Okay, I hear the intellectuals, but how about the empiricals: oil went from $119 to $148 while the dollar was steady against the Euro. Do the facts matter? What happens if they get in the way of the intellectuals' stories.
How about the supply and demand factors and how quickly oil fell off in production this year. You should all read the Washington Post series about supply and demand that is going on right now. Believe me it is not about the dollar, it is about an inability to find and an inability to drill and a run out of oil from Mexico and the third world subsidies.
It is about the lack of rigs manufactured by National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) (Cramer's Take) because of the low price of crude in the '90s. And it is about a deep-water rig shortage:
That's why I like Transocean (NYSE: RIG) (Cramer's Take). It never mentions the dollar. Are the journalists "unsophisticated" or are they actually looking at the facts?
Or how about the budget deficit. One look at the midnight increase in the authorization of the budget debt increases tells you more about the dollar than about Ben Bernanke.
We are seeing a tremendous increase in the printing presses coming courtesy of Iraq and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) and the FHA. But the intellectuals don't think it: they think it is controlled by Bernanke.
This nonsense is all classic misdirection. Do you really think that the collapse in natural gas is related to "tough talk" by fed governors and not the higher inventories with no place to put the stuff. Remember those inventories are controlled domestically and there has been the wrong weather patterns for its use and the storage places are sorely lacking.
I hate to criticize others about this lack of a link -- including people on the site -- but I await a definitive sign that supply and demand don't control the price of crude. I have seen none and this is a remarkable disconnect.
Random musings: No, not blaming the short sellers -- lots of bad companies out there. I just want the rules to be enforced.
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RELATED LINKS:
Global Economy Still Rocky
All You Need to Know About Oil
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-29-2008 @ 10:20AM
Anon said...
Oil is tied into speculation. Prices rise and fall due to people shooting missles and saying things before congress.
Did oil supply increase when the Fed Chairman said US Consumers couldn't afford gas anymore? Nope. Yet it dropped the largest it ever has in a long time.
7-29-2008 @ 11:21AM
John said...
I love it when amateur economist--AKA Cramer--think that it's all about supply and demand. That is one of the most overused ideas to explain away an issue that one cannot get their mind around! There are a multitude of factors that play in the market place other than supply and demand, especiallly when people can be scared into acting a certain way. Americans need a good dose of Churchill--"All we have to fear is fear intself"!
7-29-2008 @ 11:43AM
Alouisis said...
There is not a single cause. Anyone who is paying attention can see. Supply & demand? - Lets look - how much more demand is there this year than last? Are there supply shortages anywhere? Demand is probably not the entire cause, a part but in the end, not significant. While the change in damand v price is not linear, it is not logarithmic. So dollar value not the problem, supply not the problem, what is left? Commodity trading. Since the congress allowed oil future trading on the open market, the price has spiked.
Really, how hard was that to figure out?
7-29-2008 @ 11:55AM
Gary E. Sattler said...
Hey Jim;
This may be the worst piece of rambling misdirection that you have issued to date, in my layman's opinion.
OF COURSE supply and demand play a part in our energy prices. However, If you fail to properly quantify the political manipulations which are draining value from the public sector and which drive our costs for everything from milk to gasoline, then you are either completely blind to the forces which control our planet or you're an even bigger and uglier part of the destructive process than I originally thought.
Which is it Jim?
7-29-2008 @ 11:55AM
jodi said...
I trust Jim on his points and respect his statements. Afterall, he is at this daily while the rest of us are not.... but disagree on his directive approach. Just want to add that the disconnect MAY have been the cause of the drop when investors realized the dollar strength was not changing. There is no ONE reason for the "nonsense" on oil prices. There are many and each of them need to be addressed. It is the alignment of ALL factors causing this. And yes....he is right.....the rules must be enforced everywhere, not just in the US. Time to put the foreign investors on notice.
7-29-2008 @ 12:21PM
Leslie Watson said...
If every vehicle driven in America saved a hal gallon of fuel a week the price of fuel would go down.
300 million vehicles or more saving 150 million gallons a week every week on journeys not needed or using better driving techniks not accelerating and braking hard and the cost of fuel would go down so woud oil and the stock market would go up so by saving fuel your stocks go up.
7-29-2008 @ 3:49PM
JohnnyBIII said...
All of you are missing Cramer's point that the various assertions that are being made as to what impacts prices needs to be backed up by actual data. If you don't have the numbers to prove it, then you're just talking out your @ss.
7-29-2008 @ 9:14PM
Mr. noitall said...
I also happen to be an amateur economist, and I agree with Mr. Cramer 100% on this one. It's always about supply and demand. What wasn't mentioned is the dollar is also affected by supply and demand. We have seen the supply of the dollars increase while demand for it has decrease. If we flood the world with dollars, do we really expect it to retain it's purchasing power? Eventually the markets realize what's going on and begin to reject the dollar.
7-30-2008 @ 10:08AM
JohnQ said...
First and most important step is to restore the Constitutional Republic here in the USA. How? Take this pledge... I will NEVER vote for any Republican OR any Democrat for ANY office EVER again!