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Modest ADP job report suggests weak employment conditions continued in July

It's a job report that's not likely to encourage stock market bulls.

That's how one economist and market watcher characterized Wednesday's release of the July ADP National Employment report, which showed an increase of just 9,000 jobs. (Revised ADP payroll data for June indicated a loss of 77,000 jobs.)

Further, although the ADP report is a sample of private sector companies and not a comprehensive survey, economists scrutinize it to detect clues about the labor market. And right now, those clues suggest continued weak employment conditions amid the slowest economy in five years, says economist Glen Langan.

"Although we saw a slight lessening of job layoffs in the hard-hit construction sector, we're still seeing job losses in that category," Langan said. "The rest of the report can be characterized as tepid. Tepid may sound like an improvement or a positive, but it's not, because the U.S. economy has to create about 100,000-125,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth, with new adults entering the workforce. We're no where near that pace in 2008, which is a big negative for the [U.S.] economy."

In fact, Langan said the U.S. economy has shed an average of 94,000 jobs per month for the first six months of 2008. Further, July's ADP report does not bode well for the July non-farm payroll data report, scheduled to be released by the U.S. Department of Labor Friday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected that report to show a loss of 72,000 jobs in July.

Could be "another ugly summer Friday" for stock market

Langan, not part of the Bloomberg News survey, said the July non-farm payroll data could lead to "another ugly summer Friday for the market."

"Everyone's hoping for the best of course, and I hate to be a dark cloud, but it would not surprise me if the report shows the economy shed 125,000-135,000 jobs in July," Langan said. "In addition to housing and mortgage related layoffs, retail is starting to slow considerably, which suggests more layoffs there. Add that to typical summer Friday selling in poor economic conditions and Friday may be one of those 'hang on to your hat' days for the market. It could get ugly."

Economic Analysis: While the ADP sample is not perfectly correlated with the more comprehensive U.S. Labor Department's monthly non-payroll survey, investors should keep in mind that the ADP has overstated job growth recently. Moreover, if U.S. exporters -- heretofore an employment strength in the U.S. economy -- sense slowing international demand and start to trim payrolls, the July job losses could exceed 100,000 and yield another unpleasant Friday for the stock market.

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Last updated: December 01, 2008: 05:47 PM

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