TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says improving macro trends were ignored Thursday. Tough day.
I could tell from the way the bears gang-tackled the market at the end of the day that they were simply motivated, using all the futures and ETFs at their disposal, to knock down the market after its tremendous run.
They were backed by odd bedfellows: terrible earnings from Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) and more miserable action in the big industrials -- action so horrid that you would actually think something was happening.
In truth, the oils are acting so poorly that they are freaking people out. I think we are in the "you can't have it both ways" moment where you can't hate it when the oils go up and hate it when the oils go down.
It's a big industry, and its coincident plays of ag and mining feel the pain, too. But oil's pain is now a real gain for everything from the transports to the soft goods. So there should have been a modicum of cheering.
The Street wasn't buying that pricing is up and margins are up courtesy of the collapse in oil, and that's a trend I suspect will continue.
Thursday was a ridiculously "glass half empty" day. Take Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Cramer's Take). A small comment about advertising had this company in a total tizzy even though it was clear from CBS (NYSE: CBS) (Cramer's Take) that advertising is holding up well and it isn't like CBS is any different.
Meanwhile, we got an amazing number from theme parks, which was last week's worry. Again, we can develop worries anywhere and they sure did with Disney.
I continue to believe that housing, oil and employment are the issues here. Housing is in the process of stabilizing courtesy of the "Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) relief act" (don't forget that BAC wrote the Countrywide mortgages down to 30% and can now write them back up by flipping them to the FHA for 80%.)
That legislation continues to be overlooked, and the encouraging sales in former housing bad boy Stockton, CA, remind me of the bottom in Bradenton, FL, earlier this year.
Oil? Next stop $110. It will be hard to get below that just because we have seen such a dramatic decline in oil that is pumped this year from major companies like ExxonMobil and major countries like Norway, Britain and Mexico.
Still, it started the year at under $100, and if you plot the trajectory of XOM, it is showing that we could take out that price. Given that energy is a key part of what is wrong with the economy, a big decline has to be bullish.
Which leaves us with the wildcard of employment. I suspect, given the bears' motivations at the end of Thursday, that no matter what the number, they will try to crack it. That's what they do.
So today's summer session could get a little nutty. All that said, we are getting two out of three themes that are better, and they caused the weakness in the third.
Remember, we don't need to see housing go up. We just need to see the rate of foreclosures go down.
If you look at the bulge of the mortgages that were bad -- in the third quarter of 2006 -- and note that they are two and 20, with the two being the teaser, you should expect to see the maximum foreclosures this quarter and then some trending down. With the housing bill, that better trend should be accelerated.
All in all, remember when the bears try to trash it today, that there are giant macro themes that have been against this market for the year since I allegedly went nuts, but actually went clairvoyant, and that should play a role in any buying.
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RELATED LINKS:
All You Need to Know About Oil
U.S. Housing Prices: When's the Bottom?
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-01-2008 @ 3:00PM
Harold said...
GEEZ! For weeks Cramer has been YELLING "the sky is falling" on the economy. Then, all of a sudden, in a single day he changes his tune 180 degrees...
Give me a break!
8-01-2008 @ 6:04PM
Mike said...
Yeah he lost me there. Those clumps hitting your head are not droppings from chicken little (AKA Cramer) flying by; they are clumps of dirt falling down on your head while you look up from the bottom of the hole we've dug for ourselves in this economy. Greenspan just said the other day that he sees no bottom in the declining housing market. U.S. jobs continue to be lost. The financials continue to be toxic and untouchable and oil is no bubble folks. The energy cisis is real and the sledge hammer will continue to fall.
I think I've heard this statement too many times on the financial shows: "Things just can't be as bad as people think they are." I know you don't want to wake up, but I'm putting the coffee right under your nose. Can you smell it? Yes, things really are that bad.