In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next. (See all 25).
While financial-services firms have been dragged down as a group for more than a year, few have flamed out with the spectacular ferocity of municipal bond insurer MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI). In fact, among equities listed on the S&P 500 during the past decade, only one stock has suffered a more severe plunge in share price.
What went wrong? At no. 2 on our list of SPX slackers, MBI lost 91% of its value during the decade that ended June 30, 2008. The stock peaked at $76.02 in January 2007, which marked the last in a series of higher highs for the formerly uptrending security.
MBIA's troubles first started in January 2007, though its issues at the time would pale in comparison with later challenges. Then, the company agreed to pay $75 million to settle civil securities-fraud charges by federal and New York State authorities. MBIA was accused of making secret side deals with reinsurance companies to avoid stating a $170-million loss in 1998. As part of the settlement, MBIA said it would restate earnings from 1998 through 2004 and improve its business and accounting procedures.
Pressure ramped up on MBIA when the credit crunch rattled world equity markets in the second half of 2007. The company insured collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, saddled with subprime debt. As a bond insurer, MBIA was almost completely reliant on its triple-A debt ratings; after all, if you can't get a guarantee from an insurer, what's the point?
The triple-A ratings were never questioned in the company's early days, when it insured municipal bonds almost exclusively -- defaults were rare on these vehicles, to say the least. However, the CDO situation involved an entirely different risk level. By mid-2007, major investment banks had already written off billions of dollars in CDO losses, and investors began to wonder why MBIA should be any different.
Last December, Moody's said it was placing MBIA's triple-A ratings under review for possible downgrade. The ratings firm said that MBIA was "at greater risk of exhibiting a capital shortfall than previously communicated," thanks in no small part to the $11.09 billion in subprime mortgage debt to which it was exposed.
Now fully under fire, MBIA announced news of a $1-billion investment from private-equity firm Warburg Pincus. Last January, in a scramble to save its triple-A status, the company slashed its dividend and said it would sell $1 billion in debt to raise capital. The amount the bond insurer planned to raise seemed woefully inadequate in comparison with its losses; in its quarterly earnings release that month, MBIA reported a $3.5-billion write-down on its credit derivatives portfolio.
The pressure was also rising on ratings agencies. Many on Wall Street accused the firms of turning a blind eye to the heightened risk inherent with certain types of CDOs, thereby leaving institutions and investors vulnerable to massive losses. Moody's and Standard & Poor's capitulated, to an extent; both firms vowed to review MBIA's ratings. However, both eventually affirmed their existing opinions. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings was not convinced, and stated that MBIA needed more capital to support its asset-backed securities. MBIA's response couldn't have done much to boost investor sentiment -- the battered bond insurer asked Fitch to stop issuing credit ratings altogether on its insurance units.
What next? After admitting that its ratings may have been handed out in a rather Pollyanna-ish fashion, Moody's attempted to save face by dropping MBIA's rating from triple-A to A2 in June. As a result, MBIA found itself selling municipal bonds to raise cash; the downgrade triggered a collateral call of $4.5 billion and termination payments of $2.9 billion on guaranteed investment contracts. A fund-raising bake sale seems like a none-too-distant possibility in the future.
Most recently, MBIA said it had approximately $1.15 billion in exposure to three securitizations of loans backed by IndyMac Bancorp, which recently failed. In its upcoming earnings report -- for which no date has yet been confirmed -- analysts expect an operating loss of 94 cents per share.
Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the weekly video series Option Basics on SchaeffersResearch.com.









