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During July, the prices of oil exploration and coal stocks mentioned in my newsletter tumbled precipitously. For example, Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) and Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) lost roughly a quarter of their value by the end of July and Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) which had been up over 40% through June ended July up a relatively paltry 4% and 11% respectively.
I find this interesting because it violates one of the basic theories I have about what moves stock prices. This beat-and-raise theory says that if a company beats earnings estimates and raises its guidance, then the stock will rise. Otherwise it will fall. In the case of these four companies, each of them with the exception of Ultra which did not report, reported doubling or tripling of earnings and raised their guidance.
So why did their stocks fall? In the case of the oil and gas companies, it could be because of declining oil prices. Those peaked at $146 a barrel and recently traded at $127. But I am not aware of any diminution in the price of coal for which demand is strong due to Chinese and Indian infrastructure investment among other factors. Coal is used to make steel and to fire up power plants.
Another possible reason for the decline in these stocks is the failure of SemGroup, a Tulsa, OK-based energy trader which filed for Chapter 11 in July. For example, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), it lost $2.4 billion trading energy contracts. And its trades controlled oil volumes representing 2.5% of U.S. consumption. So it's possible that the unwinding of SemGroup could have something to do with these price declines.
I think there's something fishy going on when Congress needs to haul people to Washington to testify in order to explain why oil and gasoline prices are so high. While there is obviously a political component to these hearings – Congress wants to appear to be doing something about cripplingly high prices -- it should not be that difficult to understand what drives the price of such a fundamental commodity.
Meanwhile, I am left wondering whether the decline in the prices of the four stocks I mentioned creates a buying opportunity due to a temporary glitch in the market or whether the stock market is telling us that commodity prices will decline even more.
For the sake of the American consumer, I hope it is the latter.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-02-2008 @ 9:29PM
william lindblad said...
Good article, and it probably is a buying opportunity.
Given population expansion and the subsequent demand from emerging markets the cost of energy can only rise. Unless there is a technological breakthrough that would be a viable replacement for known materials nothing will change. A lot of potential is in developmental stage but what, if any, come to fruition remains to be seen.
One has to keep in mind that National Geographic predicted this scenario years ago. Since they have no interest in the fuel or financial markets I think they can be trusted. It is a matter of time as the supplies are not limitless.
Neither is freshwater. Wait. Problems are just beginning. The Ogalala supplies most of our ag. irrigation, which is also consider a commodity. It is not a bubble.
8-03-2008 @ 2:38AM
moonie said...
I agree, very good article.May i add yes Government has finally gotten inside the pilfering greedy minds of speculates and human desires of gain yet at America's expense.One great atribute is the intervention of Congress to delve inside the traders greed. Hooray! i exclaim. Go Congress, even if it is on your own political gain.A thought comes to mind,why has Congress delayed it's intervention at this time. Hmm i'll go ahead and say elections coming up.One might also wonder why Congress didn't intervene when Gas reached even $3.50 a gallon, Hmmm one has to wonder how many other commodity groups will Congress investigate!Hey maybe Congress will bring more commoditys to bear then maybe Gas will go back down to a modest $3 per gallon.
8-03-2008 @ 5:37PM
Tony Everitt said...
Good article. Does seem like speculation in commodities, particularly oil, may now need to pay the piper. See my own article `Pop Goes the Weasoil` for more on Tony`s Blog.
http://www.south-pacific.travel/blog
8-03-2008 @ 7:07AM
al coholic said...
Sadly, I think the stock market is telling us that commodity prices are likely to fall more. Sadly because the unfortunate byproduct of these lower prices will once again lesson our resolve to cure this issue once and for all. If gas prices drop below $3 gas guzzlers will come out of hiding.
As it is now, there is a welcome frenzy to bring new ideas and solutions to market. As our mothers told us, if the medicine didn't taste so bad it wouldn't work.
William, I share your concern about fresh water. I have been reading about new techniques for turning salt water into fresh pure water at a greatly reduced cost. I'm coming around to the notion that, at least in the case of water, science will ultimately be able to fix the problem, hopefully before too many people are affected.
8-03-2008 @ 9:27AM
william lindblad said...
Al - quite a bit on the desalinization front. The concept has been around for years and uses reverse osmosis. So far, these units have been only able to attain 60% of projected capacity. In short, it will produce enough to take care of immediate human needs and little more. These facilities are also a rather expensive proposition. This is not a plug, but GE owns most of the patents and produces the units.
To stay with Peter's blog - ag. is part of the commodity market. Although we don't think of water as a commodity - it is. It is an absolute necessity for human existence, first as a liquid and than as a means for food production.
This is the same category as oil - do nothing until the problem becomes severe. After the 1972 oil embargo Congress took some steps at seeking alternate energy. Thereafter, oil became cheap and abundant and these thoughts went the way of the wind. In 1992 Congress passed an energy act that addressed water conservation which did result in sanitation devices using much less. There has been nothing since. Within the U.S., our population has doubled and consumption goes with population. Dams and the Mulholland systems run Cal. and they are at the peak of limit. The Ogalala aquifer has about another 20 years at current use contingent on the current drought conditions in the West. High prices in the food portion of the commodity markets are here to stay.
8-03-2008 @ 2:55PM
al coholic said...
William,
I was referring to a brand new breakthrough announced a couple of days ago in the membranes used in the process. Of course, like solar power press releases which often turn out to be vague and nowhere near production, this may be another false alarm.
Here is the link...
http://windowsxp-privacy.net/?id=198760083
All in all, I think we will be able to figure out how to provide everyone who can pay with clean water. Key word of course is "pay."