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Is the commodity bubble bursting?

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During July, the prices of oil exploration and coal stocks mentioned in my newsletter tumbled precipitously. For example, Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) and Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) lost roughly a quarter of their value by the end of July and Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) which had been up over 40% through June ended July up a relatively paltry 4% and 11% respectively.

I find this interesting because it violates one of the basic theories I have about what moves stock prices. This beat-and-raise theory says that if a company beats earnings estimates and raises its guidance, then the stock will rise. Otherwise it will fall. In the case of these four companies, each of them with the exception of Ultra which did not report, reported doubling or tripling of earnings and raised their guidance.

So why did their stocks fall? In the case of the oil and gas companies, it could be because of declining oil prices. Those peaked at $146 a barrel and recently traded at $127. But I am not aware of any diminution in the price of coal for which demand is strong due to Chinese and Indian infrastructure investment among other factors. Coal is used to make steel and to fire up power plants.

This leaves me with two theories. One is that the government has been cracking down on so-called speculators who have been borrowing money and taking advantage of regulatory loopholes to drive up commodity prices. The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that a Netherlands trader was indicted for such manipulation. Perhaps this crack down is driving these speculators to sell their positions. And it may be that their positions include not only the commodities but the equity of the companies that produce them.

Another possible reason for the decline in these stocks is the failure of SemGroup, a Tulsa, OK-based energy trader which filed for Chapter 11 in July. For example, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), it lost $2.4 billion trading energy contracts. And its trades controlled oil volumes representing 2.5% of U.S. consumption. So it's possible that the unwinding of SemGroup could have something to do with these price declines.

I think there's something fishy going on when Congress needs to haul people to Washington to testify in order to explain why oil and gasoline prices are so high. While there is obviously a political component to these hearings – Congress wants to appear to be doing something about cripplingly high prices -- it should not be that difficult to understand what drives the price of such a fundamental commodity.

Meanwhile, I am left wondering whether the decline in the prices of the four stocks I mentioned creates a buying opportunity due to a temporary glitch in the market or whether the stock market is telling us that commodity prices will decline even more.

For the sake of the American consumer, I hope it is the latter.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 05:44 PM

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