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Should I have sold Marvel before the earnings?

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Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) reported earnings for the second quarter on Tuesday, and as one might imagine, even though the numbers were solid, the stock sold off. Hey, this is Marvel we're talking about here. Its shares can be volatile little suckers. They're used as trading instruments by many. I'm even questioning if I should have trimmed my position before the report. As I write this at 2 pm, the stock is off by almost 9%. Let's see what the stats tell us.

The top line rose by 55% to $156.9 million. The bottom line increased by a whopping 73% to $0.59 per diluted share. Talk about hulking up! According to Earnings.com, the call was for $0.45 per share. That's a $0.14 beat, and that freakin' rules.

As one might imagine, Iron Man, which was distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and The Incredible Hulk, placed in theaters by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, helped drive the results. The films gave Marvel some nice licensing revenues and foreign pre-sale monies. There were no contributions from the box-office side of things yet. Marvel will certainly see a good boost to its revenues if, down the line, the home-video release of the projects sell well (which I think they will). Judging from statements made in the conference call (transcribed at Seeking Alpha), we'll see most of the ancillary benefit from the movies next year. I was disappointed to see that publishing was weak (there were some tough comps there), but I'll tell you what was pretty strong: cash flow. Net cash from operations for the last six months more than doubled to over $68 million. And I love cash.

Like I said, I wonder if I should have sold at least some of my Marvel position and booked some profits. I really want to hold this for the long term, but with no self-produced movies coming out from the company in 2009, I think Wall Street may be inclined to sell the stock off due to a lack of glitzy catalysts. News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) will be releasing an X-Men movie next summer, but that's a licensed product, and Marvel doesn't get as much bang for the buck on that one since it didn't take the risk of making it.

I'll have to make a decision on Marvel later. I don't want to sell now that everyone else is selling.

Disclosure: I own GE and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 06:56 AM

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