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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Lower oil wipes out a huge headwind

Posted Aug 8th 2008 8:45AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Citigroup Inc. (C), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Costco Wholesale (COST), Cramer on BloggingStocks

The Street.com's Jim Cramer says people have more money in their wallets again, and that can only be positive.

One-time stimulus? Or multi-time pump break? Last night when I was filling up for $3.67 a gallon -- a month after paying $4.10 at the same pump -- I found myself thinking that I didn't have to go to the ATM after the fill-up. I had something left. I didn't feel that way about the stimulus check, which came and went.

When Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) said yesterday the effect of the stimulus check was over, people freaked out and trashed the stock well beyond reason. (I will buy more of it today if I can for Action Alerts PLUS.) But Wal-Mart was reacting to the end of that one-time stimulus.

If oil keeps going as I think it will, we are going to see gasoline well below $3.50 -- we have it at $3.60 now with oil at $110 -- and that part of the tax, a real tax that impacts all Americans, will be gone. The oil decline and, more important, the nat gas decline, still haven't registered in peoples' minds. The idea that it is possible that gasoline might go to, say, $3.00, is in no one's model. That your heating bill could be the same or less doesn't matter to the bears, either.

Now, in a backdrop where it looks like Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) are going bust -- looking at spreads -- and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) is struggling to stay afloat, maybe it won't matter. I think it should.

I don't like retailing stocks other than Wal-Mart, TJX (NYSE: TJX) (Cramer's Take), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) (Cramer's Take) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) (Cramer's Take), the last of which had a one-time stumble and is already close to being back to where it was. I don't like them because of home price depreciation, which will not solve itself until next year. But I do believe that we should at least recognize that when oil went from $118 to $148, all we heard was it was going to destroy us. Now that it has gone from $148 to $118, I don't hear a thing. Will people still be deaf at $110? $100?

I say: Listen.

RELATED LINKS:

Cramer: Don't Buy Oil's Rally

Retail's Best Back-to-School Options

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Wal-Mart.

Tags: C, COST, featured, FNM, FRE, Jim Cramer, JimCramer, TJX, URBN, WMT

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