The Street.com's Jim Cramer says people have more money in their wallets again, and that can only be positive.
One-time stimulus? Or multi-time pump break? Last night when I was filling up for $3.67 a gallon -- a month after paying $4.10 at the same pump -- I found myself thinking that I didn't have to go to the ATM after the fill-up. I had something left. I didn't feel that way about the stimulus check, which came and went.
When Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) said yesterday the effect of the stimulus check was over, people freaked out and trashed the stock well beyond reason. (I will buy more of it today if I can for Action Alerts PLUS.) But Wal-Mart was reacting to the end of that one-time stimulus.
If oil keeps going as I think it will, we are going to see gasoline well below $3.50 -- we have it at $3.60 now with oil at $110 -- and that part of the tax, a real tax that impacts all Americans, will be gone. The oil decline and, more important, the nat gas decline, still haven't registered in peoples' minds. The idea that it is possible that gasoline might go to, say, $3.00, is in no one's model. That your heating bill could be the same or less doesn't matter to the bears, either.
Now, in a backdrop where it looks like Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) are going bust -- looking at spreads -- and Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) is struggling to stay afloat, maybe it won't matter. I think it should.
I don't like retailing stocks other than Wal-Mart, TJX (NYSE: TJX) (Cramer's Take), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) (Cramer's Take) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) (Cramer's Take), the last of which had a one-time stumble and is already close to being back to where it was. I don't like them because of home price depreciation, which will not solve itself until next year. But I do believe that we should at least recognize that when oil went from $118 to $148, all we heard was it was going to destroy us. Now that it has gone from $148 to $118, I don't hear a thing. Will people still be deaf at $110? $100?
I say: Listen.
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Wal-Mart.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-08-2008 @ 11:31AM
nickerson said...
We know where Crammer has his money, he is thinking of ways to make CNBC and GE look good. He is taking the folks for a ride and alot of folks are really getting suckered in.
8-08-2008 @ 2:24PM
Bill In Illinois said...
I think that the point that oil becomes "inflationary" to the rest of the economy is around $100/bbl. When oil is 145 and gas is 4.40, it makes everything real expensive, because it raises everybodies overhead, in addition to everybody getting socked w/high energy prices. Once the subprime stuff is over, the Fed can raise the funds rate and make the dollar stronger, and that will help a lot. Look how much it dropped today just because the dollr has been gaining lately...
8-08-2008 @ 2:54PM
Fred said...
Take a look at that picture of Cramer. Would you trust that lunatic with your stocks or children?