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Rising dollar pushes oil prices lower

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Oil prices have moved sharply lower this morning, mostly as a result of strong upside in the U.S. dollar. Earlier in the session, oil fell as low as $115.75 a barrel, and is currently sitting at $116.15.

Prices have been dropping since mid July, and today's move comes as the dollar is reacting very positively to the recent decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to leave their interest rates unchanged. While the dollar still has a long way to go, it is encouraging to see the current rally.

As of today, the euro fell to a five month low versus the dollar, and with the dollar rising against both the British pound, and the Japanese yen, many optimistic analysts are predicting that a long recovery for the dollar is under way.


The irony is that, the dollar is not really rising because the market is starting to believe that the U.S. slowdown is reversing... no, the dollar is rising because the market is starting to see signs that the weakness that is being felt in America is also now spreading to its European counterparts. While this helps the dollar, it also pushes oil prices lower, resulting from the assumption that if European economies are slowing down that they will go through a drop in demand for oil.

Earlier today, Italy released preliminary data that showed its economy shrank during the second quarter, and analysts are already predicting that when Germany releases its economic data for the second quarter next week, we will see shrinking at an even faster pace.

The good news is that the rising dollar, coupled with falling oil prices is leading to lower prices at the pumps. It wasn't that long ago that we were looking at $4 gasoline, and while there are some parts of the country that are still seeing these $4 a gallon prices, on average, consumers are paying a good bit less. The national average is now sitting at $3.836, about one penny lower than yesterday, and expected to fall even more. Some analysts are already predicting that we should be looking at a $3.50 national average by Labor Day, which is about three weeks from now. Let's hope they are right!

What prices are you seeing when you go to fill up your cars in your area? Here in North Carolina, I am seeing anywhere between $3.75 and $3.95. Let us hear what you are paying in your part of the world.

Let's close by looking at an oil chart to get a better idea of just how much prices have dropped over the past month:



Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

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DJIA-45.878,137.30
NASDAQ+2.341,754.89
S&P 500-3.43879.25

Last updated: July 10, 2009: 02:03 PM

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