As Joe Lazzaro posted earlier, economists expect the bad times to continue through next year, according to a survey by Bloomberg News.Here are the low lights:
- The economy will grow at an average 0.7% from July through December, half the gain in the first six months of the year;
- Household spending, which has grown every quarter since 1992, is projected to stall as the impact of the tax rebates fades;
- The jobless rate, now at 5.7 percent, will reach a five-year high of 6 percent in early 2009.
Will the Democrats use this data to push for a second stimulus bill? Will growing political tensions between Russia and Georgia push up oil prices higher and make matters even worse for consumers? What about the Fed? Will it have to begin raising interest rates? When will the housing market hit bottom?
Only the most cockeyed of optimists can see a light at the end of this tunnel.
Waiting for the other shoe to drop: The looming credit crisis
Closing Bell: Dow down 7.7%; GE, YHOO, MS fall, PGI, MNT soar
Bet on T&A with J&J (JNJ)
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-11-2008 @ 2:58PM
william lindblad said...
Keeping one self in the proper perspective of the voter is non-partisan, that is, if you like staying in office. Both sides are looking at a second round, although it may be more like fuel and utility oriented.
I can't see how oil would be much effected by the Russia-Georgia-Georgia rebels problem. Russias Gaz-Prom might be, but that is going to effect Europe and I don't think that we buy natural gas from over there.
As to the Fed - they should have raised a 1/4 point at the last meeting. This would have had only psychological effect, but would keep Wall St. from getting to exhuberant and would have put greater pressure on the oil market.
Personally, I think they missed an opporturnity. Such a move would not have had any impact on the consumer or the current credit problems.
When does the housing market hit bottom?
There is a lot more default coming. WCI is the harbinger as there are many,many more of these multi-million luxury buildings that are still holding on. This segment is a yet, but when it starts to crash, more banks are going with it. There remains a great deal of "under construction" and that too falls in the remain to be seen category. Let us not forget that there are many new shopping centers, a strapped consumer and a lot of government tax bases coming up short.
Bottom is a long way off.