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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Exodus from oil may goose tech

Posted Aug 12th 2008 8:48AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), Intel (INTC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wachovia Corp (WB), Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks, Technology

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says all that money has to go somewhere, and this is a likely destination.

Clash of the ideals! Oil's down, and what can you buy when there's so much bad bank news? What can you buy when Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) is boosting reserves and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)) (Cramer's Take) is still being pursued by authorities and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) says July stunk and UBS (NYSE: UBS) (Cramer's Take) is so tarnished that you can't believe it was once the most conservative blue chip out there.

The answer is tech, of course!

Wait a second. Would anyone mind if we actually had a reason to buy tech beyond the Kindle, the device that made Citigroup gaga about Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) (Cramer's Take) -- not that you needed a device to do that.

Sure, we have pre-seasonality. Remember, you are supposed to buy tech at the end of the summer, not that anyone waits that long.

But what we really have is that quant thinking that Doug rails about so correctly: the CDO of stocks! We take a little bad tech, the lowest-end stuff like RF Micro (NASDAQ: RFMD) (Cramer's Take) and Parametric (NASDAQ: PMTC) (Cramer's Take); mix in some mid-tech, stuff like National Semi (NYSE: NSM) (Cramer's Take) and Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) (Cramer's Take); then throw in Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (Cramer's Take), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (Cramer's Take), Amazon and Adobe (NASDAQ: ABDE) (Cramer's Take) -- yes, Adobe; then split them into tranches, slice 'em up, and offer a derivative on them for those who want leverage and we have, well, a tech rally!

I know, could it be any more stupid? But there is simply too much money that is betting or leaving oil and gold, and that money goes somewhere. It does not sit idle. Given the ugliness of the banks, it can't go there today, so it will probably go to tech.

Heaven forbid it actually go to the consumers of energy, but then again, some of these big behemoth funds have taken retail up on that tangential benefit, so there's at least some correlation. The problem there is that the worst earnings may be in retail, so they are tough to buy. Even the ones I thought might have a turn at hand, like Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take), which reports tomorrow, have run 60% -- how much higher can it go even if it does do a good report? In this market there might be enough shorts in the name for it to rally and then go back down, as someone might recognize this unimportant quarter for what it is: an unimportant quarter!

Meanwhile we are so overbought -- plus-4 on my oscillator -- that it might not be worth buying anything anyway. The most oversold here is oil and heaven knows, I have tried that trade.

So the "out of oil, into financials" trade gets a rest. The "out of oil, into tech" move continues until we get some bad news. And the "out of oil, into retail" trade has gotten to the nosebleed zone for me -- I want a pullback. Maybe we will even get one! Or do pullbacks only come in regular and premium?

Random musings: "Mad Money" is back on at 1:30 again all week and next week, as is my regular show at 11:00. Grueling, in case you were wondering.

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RELATED LINKS:
Oil Sinks Despite Georgian-Russian Turmoil
Cramer: Buy Tech Here
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan.

Tags: adbe, adi, amzn, analog devices, AnalogDevices, featured, goog, intc, jim cramer, JimCramer, jpm, m, macys, ms, msft, national semi, NationalSemi, nsm, parametic, pmtc, rf micro, rfmd, RfMicro, ubs, wb

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