In this market and this economy, you take the good news where you can get it.
Today, we got some good news: the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June to $56.8 billion on record exports and a dip in non-oil imports, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the June trade gap to be $61.5 billion.
Exports surged 4% in June to a record $164.4 billion, the largest gain in four years. Imports increased 1.8% to a record $221.2 billion, inflated by sky-high oil prices. Oil, which traded at about $113.65 per barrel on Tuesday at mid-day, is up about 360% since 2003.
U.S. export activity has been a silver lining in the nation's otherwise anemic economy. The trade deficit has been declining for about two years, aided by a weaker dollar and demand for products in emerging market countries.
A stronger U.S. economy in Q2?
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday the June trade deficit statistic "was a really pleasant surprise," but he still wants to lower expectations.
"The high export number is the standout, and it's one that, if it continues, implies a higher rate of GDP growth for the U.S. economy in Q2, but let's not jump the gun. Economists sense there's a global economic slowing going on, exports may have peaked as a result, so this large increase in June may prove to be transitory," Wang said.
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.9% annualized rate, according to preliminary data compiled by the U.S. Commerce Department. Wang said the June trade deficit data suggests an upward revision of the Q2 data, but he sees only a modest upside revision to 2.1-2.2%.
"Exports are the only engine of growth right now, but we still have tremendous contraction forces in housing and in declining disposable income. I expect upward negative revision in those categories, so the total Q2 GDP revision will be modest, in my interpretation," Wang said.
In June, exports of industrial goods rose 8.1%, consumer goods exports increased 5.4%; concerning imports, goods imports rose 2%, while services increased 1%.
Economists prefer that a nation run a trade surplus as opposed to a trade deficit, as it usually implies that a nation's goods are competitive on the world stage, its citizens are not consuming too much, and that it's amassing capital for future investment and economic goals.
Economic Analysis: Prudent analysis from economist Wang. The June export data suggests a stronger Q2 GDP statistic, but one should never underestimate the degree to which the housing slump and high oil prices can slow U.S growth. Hence, like Wang, it's best to expect only a sight upward revision in Q2 GDP, pending additional data. The U.S. economy's health remains serious and guarded, to borrow a hospital phrase.










