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Applied Materials' upside surprise

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Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

The earnings report from Applied Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) was not solid but the stock sure is, which is what happens when the market starts looking at enterprise value beyond a quarterly EPS report. The stock has been cheap for some time with only the solar catalyst providing occasional lift. Contrary to other noteworthy opinions, I have not heard AMAT call a bottom or "trough" in the cycle for many a quarterly call. It has called for a reduction in the decline in certain product lines, while calling for strength in others. But as far as a broad cyclical "trough" this is the first I heard them utter that since 2005 -- and at that point the company was half right and half wrong.

Lam Research Corporation (Nasdaq: LRCX) had the best report I've seen in the sub-group. If the (SOX) keeps showing strength then I presume the group may be led by the high quality semi-caps possibly through the first quarter of 2009.

Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE) report was also noteworthy as the shares have really been hammered of late. The company beat and raised revenue guidance by a touch. However, the thing that has kept me out of CREE for more than just an occasional trade is the lack of EPS traction it seems to have, even on higher revenues. And next quarter's guidance is more evidence of that. From time to time CREE can ramp, and when it does, it's usually a compelling move. So I mainly keep the name on the radar as a technical trading vehicle. If CREE were to back fill to the mid $19's I may add a partial.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 04:43 AM

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