Shares of Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (NASDAQ: CTRP) dropped into negative territory right out of the gate this morning, thanks to some skeptical analyst commentary. The Shanghai-based travel firm is slated to report its second-quarter earnings after the closing bell tonight, and Piper Jaffray analyst Michael J. Olson warned in a client note that he expects CTRP's results to fall short of consensus estimates.

Olson, who maintains a "neutral" rating on CTRP, cited the severe earthquake that hit western China in May as a key fundamental challenge for the company. He noted a 1% year-over-year decline in Chinese air traffic during the second quarter, observing, "This is the first time since the SARS issue in 2003 that China Airline traffic data has turned negative." He also expects that Ctrip's third-quarter outlook will disappoint the Street, due to travel restrictions related to the Olympic Games in Beijing.

Ahead of tonight's second-quarter release, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting Ctrip.com to report a profit of 20 cents per American Depositary Receipt (ADR) on $53.8 million in revenue. The company has a history of solid performance in the earnings spotlight; according to First Call, Ctrip.com has exceeded analysts' consensus estimates in each of the previous four quarters. And, in contrast to Olson's skepticism, Catherine Leung of Citi Investment Research believes that the online travel firm can pull off another positive surprise.

Leung, who rates CTRP a "buy," said she expects the company to report net income of 21 cents per share on revenue of $53.7 million. She called the concerns over slowing Chinese air traffic "legitimate," but added that "We believe the risk-reward going into [the second-quarter report] has improved considerably as Street expectations have come down materially in the past three weeks." Indeed, First Call notes that four analysts have downwardly revised their earnings estimates for the second quarter, while none have raised their forecast.

Ahead of tonight's report, option players appear to be bracing for bad news. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio, which measures open interest on options slated to expire within three months, checks in at 1.51. This reading reveals that puts outnumber calls among near-term options, and it marks a 52-week high for the indicator -- which suggests that speculative traders are at a pessimistic peak.

In the August series, which is set to expire after the close of Friday's trading, peak put open interest rests at the August 45 strike. There are 12,377 contracts at this strike, and all of these puts are in the money following this morning's 3% decline in CTRP shares. By contrast, peak call open interest consists of just 3,751 contracts at the August 50 strike.

Short sellers are also betting on more downside for the stock, which has shed more than 22% year-to-date. Short interest swelled by 38% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for more than 9% of the shares' available float.

This widespread skepticism leaves CTRP well-poised to benefit from a positive earnings surprise -- but it remains to be seen whether the company can surmount its fundamental obstacles and manage another impressive turn in the earnings confessional. Any hint of weakness could encourage more bears to jump on the bandwagon, and it could also incite downgrades from brokerage firms. According to Zacks, six out of eight analysts maintain a "strong buy" or "buy" opinion on the floundering shares.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the weekly video series Option Basics on SchaeffersResearch.com.