Alan Greenspan loves talking to the press, perhaps more than he liked being the Federal Reserve chief. He recently did a long essay for the FT, and made similar comments about the financial system and housing to The Wall Street Journal. In his chat with the Journal, the old man said "Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009."
Greenspan's comments may help sell books, but there is little evidence that he is right.
Foreclosures are accelerating now, and with mortgage resets, it appears that prime mortgages are joining sub-prime mortgages as a source of defaults. Banks, which have taken hundreds of billions of dollars from the Fed, are not using that money to make new loans; they are using it to improve their own reserves against more mortgage-backed securities losses. Lending money for home loans comes with the risk that the value of those homes will keep dropping. Because of this more people find the price they can get for their houses is less than the balance of their mortgages.
In most recessions, unemployment trails the economic slowdown. Meaning that if this recession looks like the one in the early 1980s, unemployment could hit 8% or 9% of the work-force by the end of the year.
Under all of these circumstances, it would be almost impossible for the drop in home prices to be arrested within the next nine months.
Talking to the press may help Greenspan sell books whether what he says makes sense or not.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Real Estate Troubles
**FILE** In this April 25, 2008, pedestrians are reflected below a UBS office building logo in New York. UBS AG, one of the hardest hit banks in the subprime mortgage crisis, said Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2008, that it had further losses and writedowns of $5.1 billion during the second quarter of 2008. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, file)
AP
John Cryan, new CFO of the Swiss bank UBS, listens to a speech during a press conference announcing the 2008 half year result in Zurich, Switzerland, Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2008. UBS AG, one of the hardest hit banks in the subprime mortgage crisis, said Tuesday that it had further losses and writedowns of US$5.1 billion during the second quarter of 2008. (AP Photo/Keystone, Steffen Schmidt)
AP
Marcel Rohner, Chief Executive Officer of Swiss Bank UBS, speaks during a press conference announcing the 2008 half year result in Zurich, Switzerland, Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2008. UBS AG, one of the hardest hit banks in the subprime mortgage crisis, said Tuesday that it had further losses and writedowns of US$5.1 billion during the second quarter of 2008. (AP Photo/Keystone, Steffen Schmidt)
AP
** FILE ** A Jan. 30, 2008 file photo shows the logo of Swiss Bank UBS on Zurich's Bahnhofstrasse, Switzerland. UBS AG, one of the hardest hit banks in the subprime mortgage crisis, said Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2008 that it had further losses and writedowns of US$5.1 billion during the second quarter of 2008. Switzerland's largest bank, which also announced further management changes, said its net loss attributable to shareholders for the three months ended June 30 was 358 Swiss francs (US$331 million). (AP Photo/Keystone, Walter Bieri, File)
AP
** FILE ** In this file photo from March 12, 2008, dark clouds hang above the Logo of the UBS (Union Bank of Switzerland) in Zurich, Switzerland. UBS AG, one of the hardest hit banks in the subprime mortgage crisis, said Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2008 that it had further losses and writedowns of US$5.1 billion during the second quarter of 2008. Switzerland's largest bank, which also announced further management changes, said its net loss attributable to shareholders for the three months ended June 30 was 358 Swiss francs (US$331 million). (AP Photo/Keystone, Alessandro Della Bella, File)
AP
The headquarters of mortgage lender Fannie Mae is shown in Washington in this file photo from October 3, 2006. ..Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. home funding source, posted a much larger-than-expected second-quarter loss on August 8, 2008 and slashed its dividend more than 85 percent to preserve capital as home loan defaults accelerated in the bleakest U.S. housing market since the Great Depression. REUTERS/Jason Reed/Files (UNITED STATES)
Reuters
(FILES) People walk by a sign for Freddie Mac headquarters in this July 14, 2008 file photo in McLean, Virginia. Troubled mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac on August 6, 2008 reported an 821-million-dollar net loss in the second quarter as the US housing collapse further dug a hole in the company's finances. At 1.63 dollars per share, the loss was more than triple most analysts' forecasts of 53 cents per share. AFP Photo/Paul J. Richards (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)
AFP/Getty Images
LONG POND, PA - AUGUST 01: Michael McDowell, driver of the #00 Champion Mortgage Toyota, stands in the garage during practice for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Pennsylvania 500 at the Pocono Raceway on August 1, 2008 in Long Pond, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images for NASCAR)
Getty Images
Labourers work at a condominium construction site in Escazu west of San Jose, August 1, 2008. The U.S. mortgage crisis has hit Costa Rica's once booming vacation home market, with sales plummeting as Americans dreaming of buying tropical getaways on the country's beaches struggle to find financing. REUTERS/Juan Carlos Ulate (COSTA RICA)
Reuters
Workers are pictured at a condominium construction site in Santa Ana west of San Jose, August 1, 2008. The U.S. mortgage crisis has hit Costa Rica's once booming vacation home market, with sales plummeting as Americans dreaming of buying tropical getaways on the country's beaches struggle to find financing...REUTERS/Juan Carlos Ulate (COSTA RICA)
Reuters











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
8-14-2008 @ 8:50AM
norman said...
if the old geezer likes to talk about the economy so much , he should not have retired
8-14-2008 @ 11:00AM
Kate said...
No one knows when the economy will hit bottom. Everything everyone says is speculation. Banks are charging customers absorbent fees and interest rates that are undermining our country everyday. Banks are worse then the Mafia and everything they do is LEGAL. I hope 300 banks do fail and that the government doesn't bail the banks out with taxpayers money. We need to turn the banking industry on it's head and implement fees/interest rate regulations so that banks no longer can hold Americans hostage.
8-14-2008 @ 8:50PM
ericsmusclecars said...
I think Mr Greenspan, knows what he is talking about. The rich keep getting richer.....2009 is going to be a different story.
www.ericsmusclecars.com for a real
investment
8-14-2008 @ 8:53PM
clifford lintz said...
This crook should shut-up and try to scrape the brown off his nose after all the years he had it stuck up Bushes butt! He could'nt run a lemenade
stand.
8-14-2008 @ 9:03PM
thec2u said...
This senile moron started the modern era depression by holding interest rates too low for too long. People suddenly realize they can affford house house than they would otherwise, and the total failure to oversee the mortgage industry completes the disaster.
8-14-2008 @ 9:19PM
Bryan said...
Interest rates were in my opinion held low not just to further up the speeding of the economy in post 9/11 but to also collect on taxes on properties that were being quickly snatched up by couples or families whether they could or couldn't afford the payments. No one can really predict a housing bottom because any one disaster can happen before it actually hits rock bottom. You can only analyze maybe 3-6 months later and say "Oh, looks like we hit rock bottom a few months ago." Especially in todays economy, slowly rising unemployment, turbulant Wall St. and gas prices, foreclosures, etc., you just never know.
8-14-2008 @ 9:27PM
Jo said...
This from the man who claimed he "never saw it coming" (re the housing crisis). I find it frightening that a man in the position he was then in was so unaware of something so obvious -- and did so little to forestall it.
8-14-2008 @ 9:27PM
Richard said...
Greenspan the idiot was the primary cause of the housing bubble by keeping interest rates at 1% for far too long lowering the cost of borrowing for homes and LBOs to almost nothing.
With all the demographic and household wealth data available, Greenspan and other government hacks should have known and warned that there were too many people buying homes they couldn't afford.
I knew we were in a bubble in 2004 just based on the real estate market in Eastern PA.
8-14-2008 @ 9:28PM
TB said...
You folks need to look up the news items surrounding this jerk dated Feb 2001 and find the time period things started to go bad.
Feb 2001- Greenspan raises interest rates to six percent saying that a recession is coming if he does not do it. June 2001, cost of products and fuel start raising at alarming rates. Reagan appointed him to the Fed Reserve but Bill Clinton was the one that praised him the highest.
He was one of the main reasons things started going down hill. I used a news item about him raising rates in July 2001, the same time the cost of goods and the cost of Gas started skyrocketing, to my customers showing them why I had to raise my rates to continue my service in my company.
8-14-2008 @ 9:35PM
Jo Ann said...
I am most grateful to Alan Greenspan. After my husband's death in 1986 I found that (with little business training) I was nevertheless the executrix of an estate. I carefully listened to Alan Greenspan's comments ~ especially the one about investing. Paraphrasing one of his statements I'll always remember his comment about investing. In effect he said: "Do not try to become rich overnight but be reasonable in investing and content with making a profit." I followed that advice and more than 20 years later, a journalist who knew little about business is financially okay. I do not know Alan Greenspan personally but he is my financial hero ~ and I would advise anyone to listen to what the gentleman has to say.
8-14-2008 @ 9:36PM
Charile Johnson said...
GREENSPAN is correct !!! I know because God knows and God has revealed His plan for the world right down to the day and hour ! If only people would read their Bibles, they would discover that between late 2009 and early 2011 the economy and times will move in a rosy direction, hence "The merchant sayeth, why now Lord", when Christ appears on may 21st. 2011, and for 153 days (five months )- same as the 153 fish that were caught in Jesus last moment of history when he was in the world in the last Chapter of the book of John), on October 21st, 2011 the END of ALL CREATION occurs !!!
This is no joke, and the prophecies of God are relaibale, and subject ONLY unto the Bible's interpretations, but just as was predicted, the world will ignore this and since some of the world puts it's faith in Nostradamus or the Mayen civilization; expecting the end in 2012, yet another prophecy of "when they least expect it; the end will come" shall be fulfilled !
8-14-2008 @ 9:38PM
ESTEBAN said...
THE IMPORTANT THING IS NOT WHEN THE HOUSING MARKET WILL HIT BOTTOM BUT WHEN DOES THE MARKET START ITS RECOVERY. WITH ALL THE RESPECT MR. GREENSPAN, WE SHOULD BE DOING SOMETHING TO STOP THE FORECLOSURES FROM HAPPENING.
THIS IS MY IDEA TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM.
WHY DON'T THE FEDERAL RESERVE OR THE FED. GOVERNMENT GIVES HUGE TAX BREAKS TO ANY INVESTORS OR "LENDERS" WILLING TO PROVIDE HOME OWNERS WITH LOANS DESIGNED TO BETTER THE TERMS SO CONSUMERS CAN SAVE THEIR HOUSES. WHY NOT TO CONSIDER 5 OR 10 YEARS FIX RATE BALLOON MORTGAGES WITH 50 OR 60 YEARS PAYOUT IN ORDER TO MAKE PEOPLE QUALIFY AND RETAIN THEIR HOUSES.
INTEREST ALONE WON'T SOLVE THE PROBLEM.
THIS IS A TIME WHERE BANKS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS ENOUGH TO REFRAIN PEOPLE TO USE CREDIT, TO PROVIDE RELIEF SO THE PEOPLE CAN START SAVING AGAIN, SO IN THE NEAR FUTURE THE RECESSION WOOS WONT AFFECT THE RECOVERY OF OUR REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY, WHICH IS INDEED THE BACKBONE OF OUR ECONOMY.
8-14-2008 @ 9:42PM
RM said...
AMERICA IS IN A VERY SERIOUS CRISIS!!! I HOPE THAT THIS, WILL ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO GO OUT AND VOTE IN NOVEMBER. COULD WE AFFORD TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON WARS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN??? I BELIEVE IT IS THE PRESIDENT'S RESPONSIBILITY TO PUT AMERICANS FIRST AND WAR LAST!!! SPEAK YOUR MIND, IF YOU REALIZE THAT WE NEED CHANGE!!!! VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!
8-14-2008 @ 9:48PM
RM said...
FELLOW AMERICANS WE NEED CHANGE, NOW!!! WE KNOW THAT McCAIN (McBUSH), WILL CONTINUE WITH WARS. TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN WAR INSTEAD OF TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS INTO REVITALIZING OUR ECONOMY, IT MAKES NO SENSE TO ME!!! BARACK OBAMA, WILL RETURN OUR TROOPS HOME SAFELY!!! SPEAK YOUR MIND, VOTE BARACK OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!!
8-14-2008 @ 9:51PM
Charile Johnson said...
VOTE against anyone who supports the "Woman's RIGHT to CHOOSE to abort her child" And if you need a good reason then Google "abortion" an see what actually occurs. If this is not enough to persuade you then maybe "Thou shalt not kill" will ?
WE ALL MEET GOD SOME DAY.......
8-14-2008 @ 10:31PM
nickerson said...
If anyone puts any stake in what this guy says were in trouble. He is way past his time. He and his wife should take a trip around the world and get lost.
8-14-2008 @ 11:05PM
teltech54 said...
His numbers are off. It won't be until the second half of 2009 that home prices stabilize. The unemployment rate will hit minimum 10 percent. 35 percent of ALL businesses in the US will close. Around 300 banks will fail. Three more LARGE banks will fail. Search the internet. The facts are supported in stories from all over the US.
8-14-2008 @ 11:09PM
CAV44 said...
RM....It's really great to finally find an expert on the economy and the election. I'll wait for your next blog with breathless anticipation.
8-14-2008 @ 11:18PM
Barbara Brown-Smith said...
When you know who you're confronted by (that higher power in gov't) what's happening shouldn't be a shock to the American people. We the people need to go back and read our history. The Federal Reserve (that higher power) is our worse enemy. We were sold out before a lot of us were born by some of the Founding Fathers and long long gone Presidents. Thanks be to GOD, He is all powerful and the day will come when Mr. Greenspan and others who are robbing the people will pay.
8-14-2008 @ 11:20PM
CAV44 said...
RM...Vote for Obama? Did you happen to see the video where his teleprompter failed during a speech? You'd have thought someone had given him a frontal lobotomy. President Bush may not be the most eloquent speaker in the world but he can give a speech without a hollywood production crew.