Has Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Tropic Thunder succeeded where the Joker has failed? Has the film beaten Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight? According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, it has. Can you believe it? Tropic Thunder, which stars Ben Stiller, right now has $26 million to its credit, enough to capture the top spot. That number will change most likely when final tallies are in, but it doesn't matter, since The Dark Knight is believed to have taken in a little under $17 million over the three-day weekend at domestic multiplexes, giving it a second-place finish. This is good news for shareholders of Viacom, who have so far been pretty happy with the studio's successful summer output. Box-office hits like Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man have powered the media company.
Now, Time Warner's new animated flick, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, actually did worse than I expected. It came in third with $15 million. I admit, I totally misread this one. Believe it or not, I thought the film might do a huge number, like between $40 million and $50 million. I'm not sure the box-office dynamics at this time of year would have supported a statistic like that for this kind of film. And I guess I overestimated the number of geeks out there who were waiting to see it during the first weekend out. I really blew it on that one. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) horror flick Mirrors came in fourth place, while Pineapple Express, distributed by Sony (NYSE: SNE), came in fifth. I saw Express last week. Cool movie.
The big story of the weekend is still, in many respects, The Dark Knight. Looks like it will indeed make $500 million. There's another prediction that went awry for me, since I thought it might weaken too much before hitting that milestone. But it should definitely make at least that much judging from where it currently stands. Time Warner's stock has perked up as of late. It's not necessarily due to Batman, although the film certainly won't hurt the company once it starts booking revenues from the project in future quarters.
It's too bad Time Warner wasn't brave enough to finance the film all on its own. It spread the risk with an entity called Legendary Pictures. I wish shareholders were privy to the deal structures in place on film investments so they could better understand the financial impact a hit like this will have on the company's coffers. That'll never happen, of course, since Hollywood doesn't want to disclose anything. As for Time Warner's stock, I'd absolutely wait for a pullback before even thinking about buying. (By the way, you can check out Time Warner's recent earnings transcript for more information regarding the studio's progress.)
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