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Shipping costs starting to hamper ocean-spanning globalization

What's one trend that's starting to feel the pinch of sky-high oil prices?

If you answered 40-mile commutes to work and/or tank-sized SUVs, you're right, but in this case it's the business process called the global supply chain.

The logic of, for example, shipping Brazilian iron ore to China to be made into steel, then shipping it back to Long Beach, California in the form of washing machines is making less sense today than it did when oil was $25 per barrel a decade ago, The New York Times reported.

In fact, some manufacturing that fled Mexico for even-lower-cost-labor China is now returning to Mexico because it's cheaper per unit to manufacture the goods in Mexico and send them to the United States, after oils costs for shipping are considered, The Times reported.

Spanning the world: it isn't cheap

Economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks that investors / readers should expect more 'repatriation' of manufacturing if oil stays above $100 per barrel.

"Companies will be begin to shift, in some cases, on a product-by-product basis, the production of goods to net lower cost zones," Dawson said. "China's percentage of manufacturing in the world will continue to increase, but the calculus now is more complicated. It's no longer 'O.K., we need 200,000 auto motors, off we go to China.' Those motors may end up being less expensive if secured in Mexico, after transport costs are considered."

The high energy cost era is likely to hinder/reduce another transport trend: the business of shipping chicken and fish from the Western Hemisphere to be filleted and packaged in Asia, not to be consumed there, but to be shipped back across the Pacific again to be consumed in the U.S. and the Americas, The Times reported.

Dawson described the above as "Just nuts, totally nuts, environmentally-speaking," but a trend that was, nevertheless, profitable for much of the current decade. A $100 oil price is changing that, Dawson said, as is the consumer preference for locally-grown food, the so-called local food phenomenon.

"You see more companies seeking to grow and buy foods wholesale locally because more consumers are preferring it. And with high-priced oil, more companies will prefer it in the future, from a cost standpoint," Dawson said.

Economic Analysis: Given current cost structures, few economists are suggesting that the shift of manufacturing to China and other low-cost countries is likely to end: that shifting has been a part of production and market-based economies for centuries, with China being the most preferred locale of the current decade. Still, as Dawson noted, production of selected items will move to closer manufacturing sites, due to oil's high cost.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 04:06 AM

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