Minyanville Founder and CEO Todd Harrison dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
Holy cow, can it be any slower out there? I'm taking a break from trying to set the all-time record for meetings on a "slow" summah Friday to offer a quick take on a few topics.
Will Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) get married over the weekend?
- There hasn't been any price talk on Lehman so even if it happens, it's a bit of a crap shoot. Remember Minyans, Bear Stearns was taken over too.
- There is no doubt franchise value and a lot of smart people at Lehman. There's also a lot of baggage on their balance sheet. It -- like most of the financials -- is a double-edged sword.
Should the Fed step in to do something about Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE)?
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With $233 billion due by end of quarter, they must, but there are structural and societal ramifications, which is why it's so tricky.
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What happens to the dollar if all that debt is assumed by the government?
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Where do you draw the line of socialization? That, in a nutshell, is the moral hazard debate.
Odds and Ends
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Crude: we talked about the $10 technical increments and they continue to play out. It failed at $120 and $110 is back on the radar.
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Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB): you can learn a lot just by watching and this stock isn't participating in the bank rally today.
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Retail HOLDRs (AMEX: RTH): if our take on the migrating phases of the credit crisis plays out, a nice short could be setting up as this puppy approaches par ($100).
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We're hearing (not confirmed) that a $3 billion commodity fund halted redemptions and that could be behind the price action in commodity land today.
We're almost there, my friends -- keep your focus and remember that the risk profile you go home with is the one you'll awake with during next week's holiday thinned stretch.
R.P.
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