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Could Venezuela become Zimbabwe? Ask Cemex

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In the margins of Barron's this week there was a smallish note about the government of Venezuela nationalizing Cemex's (NYSE: CX) operations in that country. For some reason the government of Hugo Chavez thinks that stealing all of the private companies in 'his' country will lead to greater prosperity for 'his' people.

While it is a long journey from Venezuela to Zimbabwe, with its exponential inflation rate and a near-total economic breakdown, every journey begins with a first step. Mr. Chavez will move much closer to this inevitable outcome if he continues on his chosen path.

Motley Fool has a good write-up on the subject in which they detail the sour relations between Chavez and foreign businesses. Chavez recently offered to re-open negotiations with Cemex, but since he has already decided to take the company, that offer is suspect -- you can't negotiate with a gun pointing at you. To date, Chavez has nationalized the telecommunications industry, electricity, and oil. How many steps down the road is that? Why would anyone want to invest in Venezuela?

If Chavez thinks foreign companies are cheating his country then he should take them to court and formally charge them with a crime. Otherwise, he is going to find that the people of Venezuela are most assuredly being cheated as he scares away foreign investment, leaving the companies in the hands of managers with less skill and no personal interest in the success of the company.

CX closed yesterday at $20.27 and is down in mid-day trading. The company was on an acquisition binge prior to the U.S. housing slump. Expanding into a slowing economy has contributed to a decrease in earnings as the company has notable debt weighing it down. Even though Venezuela represents only 4% of Cemex's earnings, Chavez's actions aren't helping the stock today.

UPDATE: CX closed today at $19.87 down -$0.40 (-1.97%)

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of CX.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 02:31 PM

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