Is the Fed underestimating inflation by using 'core' inflation metric?
The above is a critique of the U.S. Federal Reserve's use of core inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- as a measure of lasting price changes in the U.S. economy.
Critics charge, "inflation is the sum of all products / services consumers use, not solely a portion." In essence, they argue that the Fed is underestimating inflation, creating a distorted picture of price conditions people face daily.
Still, a new research report by Michael Kiley, a Federal Reserve economist, supports the Fed's continued use of the core inflation metric. In Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices, Kiley's research reinforces the theory that total inflation historically contains more temporary changes in prices -- i.e. changes that could disappear -- than core inflation, thus supporting the continued use of core inflation.
In other words, core inflation is used by the Fed because it has been deemed a more-accurate predictor of long-term price changes or 'inflation over time' than total inflation, sometimes also referred to as 'headline inflation.'
Economist David H. Wang said he's by-and-large in agreement with Kiley's conclusions. "Core inflation is more indicative of long-term price changes. The problem occurs when you have periods of large price changes in food and energy, such as today, which pushes total inflation way up. Then the cry occurs that the Fed is not measuring inflation accurately," Wang said.
"But what people have to realize is that those food and energy prices can also drop just as quickly, depressing overall inflation, and that volatility underscores the reason the Fed uses core inflation as a gauge. Core inflation is a more-accurate measure of long-term price pressures in the economy, and we evaluate these long-term pressures to determine if inflation is getting out of hand."
Which begs the obvious question: What if globalization and the new, higher demand it has placed on commodity prices, and by extension on energy prices, represents not a short-term price jump but a long-term price increase?
"History says that will not be the case, that periods of record energy price increases have been followed by price busts," Wang said. "Obviously, the ultimately proof of this will be how energy prices perform following this extraordinary oil bull market."
Economic Analysis: For now, the view from here concurs with economist Wang and argues that core inflation remains a better tool to detect and evaluate long-term price trends than total inflation. The aforementioned assumes a future price decline in oil/energy prices and food prices, something business executives and consumers no doubt hope starts very soon.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-26-2008 @ 1:20PM
JB said...
Right! "Core Inflation" is like picking up a turd by the clean end! Food and energy are the ones that are taking our discretionary income (along with prescription drugs).
8-26-2008 @ 2:02PM
william lindblad said...
The core inflation premise works well when the food and energy sectors are "spikes", and of short duration. But this is the end of August and fuel has been high for over 9 months. Grain prices have retreated from highs, but still remain well above this time last year. The overall factors, such as fuel to harvest and fuel to deliver cannot be denied. The price of fuel is interwoven into so many products that there is way but up.
The economic slump is showing worldwide. Layoff factor is high and wages stagnant. Optimism remains, fed by mis-information and outright lies. When the full consequences make their way into public view the taxpayer will have a multi trillion dollar debt.
The core inflation thinking has to change with the times and events. When there are prolonged periods of high costs in energy, food, Rx and other staples or required items, these areas cannot be pushed into a back seat. Using a brake job or appliance purchase in the present environment is living a lie.
8-27-2008 @ 1:57AM
John Scanlan said...
The concept of Core Inflation sounds great...in theory. In reality, this appears to be just another tool with which the Fed can go on ignoring the real issues and assume the ALL-IS-WELL posture.
8-27-2008 @ 9:54AM
Richard Wm Roper said...
I have often wondered why they don't report Core Inflation and Inflation with all
currently excluded items. the citizens have a right to know. The current "Spike" in costs isn't going away. Once the cost of gas and groceries climb they will never go back to where they were a year ago. We will never see $2.50 a gallon gas again and the food prices will never see the prices we paid at the start of the year.
Raise the price of gas to $5.00 and it lowers consmption then drop it to $4.50 and the consumer thinks he's getting a deal.
8-28-2008 @ 4:58PM
INCOME TAX IS NOT LAW said...
The House of Rothschild bought Reuters news service in the 1800's. Within the last 20 years, Reuters bought the Associated Press. Now the Elite own the two largest wire services in the world, where most newspapers get their news. The Rothschilds have control of all three U.S. Networks, plus other aspects of the recording and mass media industry according to research by Eustice Mullins in his book 'Who Owns the TV Networks'