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Will Boeing's union strategy work?

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Bloomberg News reports that Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) chose a different approach to communicating with its union in the current round of talks. Rather than presenting its proposals to union leaders and relying on those leaders to share those details with the rank-and-file, Boeing chose to communicate directly with workers. Bloomberg interviewed an expert who said that Boeing's strategy may backfire because it makes union leaders feel threatened.

Union leaders may feel that Boeing is trying to end-run them with its communications strategy. Bloomberg quotes Gary Chaison, a labor-relations professor at Clark University in Worcester, MA who said that "Boeing believes that its offer, which is actually quite good, would appeal to the workers if only presented to them directly. The company seems to have confused public relations with collective bargaining." Chaison believes that Boeing is "usurping union leaders' role in communicating with members."

But Howard Rubel, a Jeffries analyst, believes that Boeing's offer is a good one and that workers may decide to accept it despite the urging of a strike by union leaders. Bloomberg quotes Rubel as saying that a strike -- which could begin one minute after midnight on September 4th -- would cost Boeing $120 million a day as it tries to meet its $275 billion backlog of orders over the next six years.

Odds appear to favor a costly strike though. Bloomberg writes that "machinists have followed leaders' voting recommendations in three of the last four negotiations, stopping work over two of them to gain contract improvements. The most recent walkout shaved $300 million from Boeing's second-half earnings in 2005."

A strike could cost workers as well since Boeing's package appears to be generous. Bloomberg notes that "Boeing dropped most plans the union had termed 'strike issues' and offered a package that would boost overall average compensation, including overtime, bonuses and benefits, by 23 percent over three years to $110,400."

But union leaders complain that Boeing's offer falls short. Bloomberg quotes Tom Wroblewski, president of the International Association of Machinists (IAM)'s District 751 in Seattle. who said, "All our members want is a little bit of the pie they've helped create. The offer fell short in job security as well as health care, wages, time off, pensions, profit-sharing and other issues."

Boeing needs a strike like it needs a hole in its head. And IAM knows it. Will the union use that leverage to extract more money from Boeing? Or will its workers accept this offer and keep building? Boeing investors should watch closely what happens over the next few days.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. Portfolio will publish his book about Boeing, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, in December 2008. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 07:45 AM

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