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Cramer on BloggingStocks: This retail tide can lift all boats

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TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says with gas coming down further, the coming rally could be broad and fierce.

The great hurricane fakeout leaves us with oil much lower than it began, having launched itself from $112. Now that the $110 level's been breached and natural gas has gone as low as $7.50, we can begin to put together a holiday scenario that might -- just might -- explain the incredible run in retail that's been going on.

The presumption in retail, if you use Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) as retail, was that once the stimulus wore off, presumably last month, the stocks would get hammered. On Aug. 7, Wal-Mart as much as told you that, and the stock dropped to $57 from $60.90.

Ever since then, it has been creeping up. Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take) dropped a point from that warning, going from $45 to $44. It is now at $49. Macy's (NYSE: M) (Cramer's Take) went from $19.80 to $18.90 before bouncing to $20.82. Jones (NYSE: JNY) (Cramer's Take) went from $17.40 to $17.20 before roaring to $19.80. Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) (Cramer's Take), because of a great quarter, didn't even get hurt, rallying from $67 to $75.


I think all of these rallies can be quantified by gasoline going from $4.50 to $3.50. The stocks say that the extra dollar served as more of a stimulus than the rebates, especially given that no one expected much from back to school.

We can't expect gasoline to go down as much it did when oil plummeted from $148 intraday to $111. But the price held firm at $3.50 and change despite last week's big run even though the lag on the upside has only been a couple of days at a time.

Now it is time to ponder what $3.25-to-$3 gas will mean for retail. I think, given how lean the inventories for retail are and how heavy the inventories for oil are, we can expect a run down to $3 and a robust move higher for the group.

If that's the case, it might be worth recalling who has the best inventory situation -- Penney (NYSE: JCP) (Cramer's Take) and Macy's -- and who was doing the best going in to the decline -- TJX (NYSE: TJX) (Cramer's Take), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) (Cramer's Take) and Jones.

I think any of those makes a great play with oil plummeting.

Don't overlook, though, the packaged-goods players with the biggest price increases off of oil: Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take), General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take) and Procter (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take). I don't play the airlines, but it is obvious that AMR (NYSE: AMR) (Cramer's Take) could react up the most here, with Continental (NYSE: CAL) (Cramer's Take) second.

Do not dismiss the post-Labor Day rally that obscures what happened to Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) (Cramer's Take) last week. Do not dismiss the notion that Dell's execution is poor. But most importantly, recall that a market that has retail rallying can take up everything, including electronics, as any rally will extend to Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) (Cramer's Take), another stock that got crushed after the rebates and that has now roared back to the peak of rebate season.

Finally, I continue to believe that Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) (Cramer's Take) has bottomed, with four sells and a hold and a short position equal to a bad savings and loan going into a rate hike.

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RELATED LINKS:
Gustav Loses Steam As It Moves Inland
Crude Futures Fall After Gustav Weakens
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Wal-Mart, Pepsi, General Mills and Procter & Gamble.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 22, 2009: 12:35 PM

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