Chasing Value: Financials risky but up 26%

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It has been five weeks since I posted Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials. The results of buying into the following pool of financial stocks at a time when the "hate 'em" factor was at a peak has been tremendous. The over all return has has been 26.3% with eight stocks up and two down.

For investors this might have been too speculative; for traders, they are probably grinning from ear to ear. For me -- we will see where we stand next year. As one of my colleagues reminded me, this is the real test, although I think there is reason for optimism.

The leader of the pack was MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI), up 228%. In the absence of that gain the appreciation would have only been 3.5%. That beats all the indices but is not as dramatic.
  • Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) -- $18.45 down 63% from its 52 week high of $49.90; closed yesterday at $19.11, UP 3.57%
  • Lehman Br Holdings (NYSE: LEH) -- $16.88 down 75% from its 52 week high of $67.73; closed yesterday at $16.13, down 4.44%
  • Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) -- $26.25 down 67% from its 52 week high of $79.72; closed yesterday at $27.75, UP 5.7%.
  • MBIA Inc (NYSE: MBI) -- $4.92 down 93% from its 52 week high of $68.98; closed yesterday at $16.14, UP 228%.
  • E*TRADE (NASDAQ: ETFC) -- $3.06 down 84% from its 52 week high of $19.39; closed yesterday at $3.25, UP 6.2.
  • East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) -- $12.46 down 67% from its 52 week high of $20.88; closed yesterday at $13.01, UP 4.4%.
  • Gramercy Capital (NYSE: GKK) -- $6.72 down 77% from its 52 week high of $29.45; closed yesterday at $6.80, UP 1.2%.
  • Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) -- $5.88 down 72% from its 52 week high of $20.88; closed yesterday at $6.89, UP 17.18%.
  • Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) -- $15.70 down 70% from its 52 week high of $53.10; closed yesterday at $16.65, UP 6%.
  • Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) -- $4.43 down 89% from its 52 week high of $39.48; closed yesterday at $4.24, down 4.29%
In my original post I emphasized that you had to buy the pool for safety. During the last month, we have seen many stories about Lehman Brothers' demise or the collapse of a major bank like WaMu or Wachovia, and if that had happened the gains in MBIA would have made up for the total and complete collapse of any one of them. I have no reason to believe this is immanent. I do have reason to believe the opposite. During the last month I bought additional shares of WaMu, one of the two down stocks at $3.50 per share.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of MBI, NCT & WM.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+150.2510,058.64
NASDAQ+24.822,150.87
S&P 500+13.781,070.52

Last updated: February 10, 2010: 02:25 AM

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