MS's Roach says we've only just begun, regarding economic slump

"Of course, we are in an election year in the United States, when the rhetoric from politicians is fast and loose, and it can confuse investors. So Roach's comments on global conditions are both pertinent and valid, in my interpretation of the data. Asia exports are likely to slow, Europe will likely accompany the U.S. in a recession, and global growth will fall below 3%," Wang said. "And we have serious concerns regarding what will get the U.S. economy out of its funk. We haven't been able to identify a catalyst, a point that Roach also makes. So the economic doldrums are far from over, both in the U.S. and globally."

Further, Wang said if U.S. exports cool, due to slowing international demand, "the U.S. economy is in serious trouble." So far, exports are holding up, he said.

Readers of Roach's research are usually hard-pressed to find a silver lining, but Wang found one. "Roach argues that two-thirds of the credit market contagion is behind us, and I agree," Wang said. "More mortgage-related write offs are ahead but they will not be as large. But investors should not confuse that with rising GDP. GDP growth rates globally are decelerating, so we are a long way from an economic recovery."

Economic Analysis: Both Roach's and Wang's analysis underscore the need for infrastructure and education catalysts to jump-start the U.S. economy, with increased government spending and taxes playing a key role. That means voters in November will help decide whether that stimulus occurs, with the Democrats more-likely to favor the above, and the Republicans more-likely to oppose them.