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Serious Money: The business of politics and vice versa

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This charming pic-toon of moderation comes from one of my talented long time friends, Ron Overmyer, who has allowed me to share it with our readers. He does a weekly email blast and this is one of his tamer commentaries, one that might give us pause to consider what it means to be objective.

I thought I would take a moment to shout out to any moderates in the audience and say that I too have worried that some of my colleagues may have sacrificed their reputations for objectivity by writing some posts that could be viewed as borderline paid political announcements. Some readers have quipped that this should be included in the disclosure. However, on the occasion that this is true, it is usually so blatant that I would characterize such disclosure as redundant.

Several of my posts contain political commentary but I think our posts should be about investing, not swaying voter opinion. I especially avoid one-sided rationalizations that appear to have a specific agenda -- although I readily admit that on occasion the dividing line may be very fine indeed.

I still have not made up my mind about the upcoming election because I find some merit in the positions of each candidate. But to me the real question on our site remains: where do you put your money in the case of either candidate's success?

For example, Barack Obama is on record as having an interest in windfall taxes for oil companies and I have an aversion to this (see Obama's $1000 giveaway is a take away!). It seems pretty clear that big oil would be happier with McCain in the White House, so if Barack wins I would think Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) might not be favorable investments.

On the other hand, companies like Suntech Power Hldgs. (NYSE: STP), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) and Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) may do well because Obama wants to stimulate industries that have heavy R&D components.

Now John McCain, and even more so with Sarah Palin on the ticket, is interested in expanding our oil and gas exploration efforts in North America, so companies in those industries might get a boost, although I'm not sure they need it. Companies like Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Transocean (NYSE: RIG) Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS), and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) seem like candidates for continued success.

Oddly, the oil companies may favor McCain but not fair well under his administration if conservation trends continue, or the alternative energy industry expands and the exploration exposes any notable finds.

In any case, I believe either candidate will lead to a "Bush is out" relief rally after the election. This, along with falling oil prices, low interest rates, and stabilizing housing prices and financial stocks, all make me optimistic about 2009. It is 2010 that may be in question depending on what our friends in Congress do. If there is anything that makes me lean a little toward the Republican ticket, it is that I am not enthusiastic about one party rule.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of COP, ISRG & PDS.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 06:49 AM

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