This charming pic-toon of moderation comes from one of my talented long time friends, Ron Overmyer, who has allowed me to share it with our readers. He does a weekly email blast and this is one of his tamer commentaries, one that might give us pause to consider what it means to be objective.
I thought I would take a moment to shout out to any moderates in the audience and say that I too have worried that some of my colleagues may have sacrificed their reputations for objectivity by writing some posts that could be viewed as borderline paid political announcements. Some readers have quipped that this should be included in the disclosure. However, on the occasion that this is true, it is usually so blatant that I would characterize such disclosure as redundant.
Several of my posts contain political commentary but I think our posts should be about investing, not swaying voter opinion. I especially avoid one-sided rationalizations that appear to have a specific agenda -- although I readily admit that on occasion the dividing line may be very fine indeed.
I still have not made up my mind about the upcoming election because I find some merit in the positions of each candidate. But to me the real question on our site remains: where do you put your money in the case of either candidate's success?
For example, Barack Obama is on record as having an interest in windfall taxes for oil companies and I have an aversion to this (see Obama's $1000 giveaway is a take away!). It seems pretty clear that big oil would be happier with McCain in the White House, so if Barack wins I would think Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) might not be favorable investments.
On the other hand, companies like Suntech Power Hldgs. (NYSE: STP), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) and Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) may do well because Obama wants to stimulate industries that have heavy R&D components.
Now John McCain, and even more so with Sarah Palin on the ticket, is interested in expanding our oil and gas exploration efforts in North America, so companies in those industries might get a boost, although I'm not sure they need it. Companies like Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Transocean (NYSE: RIG) Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS), and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) seem like candidates for continued success.
Oddly, the oil companies may favor McCain but not fair well under his administration if conservation trends continue, or the alternative energy industry expands and the exploration exposes any notable finds.
In any case, I believe either candidate will lead to a "Bush is out" relief rally after the election. This, along with falling oil prices, low interest rates, and stabilizing housing prices and financial stocks, all make me optimistic about 2009. It is 2010 that may be in question depending on what our friends in Congress do. If there is anything that makes me lean a little toward the Republican ticket, it is that I am not enthusiastic about one party rule.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of COP, ISRG & PDS.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-03-2008 @ 8:38PM
Mr. noitall said...
So some of your colleagues may have sacrificed their reputations? Are you talking about Peter Cohan? LOL. I hope his students read his posts, and the comments that I and others have made that point out when Peter has been blatantly bias. I hope they become independent thinkers. I've mentioned many times that I think Peter is well educated, intelligent and has written many worthwhile articles for BloggingStocks, but when he tries to help his political party, his posts become comical, laughable and ridiculous. Peter I don't care what party you endorse, but at least give us some realistic analysis based on facts when you are trying to make your case. I know there is a sane person in there somewhere.
9-03-2008 @ 9:03PM
william lindblad said...
In this forum - excellent position. However, since politics and economics have so much in common, some controversy can be expected. It is a fine line and personal prospectives can easily become an issue.
Since I am but a commentator and thus, enjoy considerable leeway, I feel that I am looking a choice of the lesser of two evils which does result in a bit of a quandary.
Since there remains many days until November I think I will wait and see what the candidates have to say as the world and it's respective economic conditions change. Let us see who changes their rhetoric and stays on top of events. The one who does is the best choice.
To date, I have not heard anything that impresses - from either camp. A fateful flaw in politics is telling the truth, which is generally held in low esteem by the voting public.
9-04-2008 @ 12:12AM
tom scott said...
raise rates and keep our government strong,regadless what wallstreet does,like seperation of church and state need seperation of wallstreet and government to keep our deficit down i am sure that is not what our curupt buisness/government leaders want to hear but it is the truth.are they really out for money or to lesd out of our deppretion
9-04-2008 @ 5:33AM
Yoni said...
Sheldon,
I just wanted to let you know that I do appreciate your blog postings, however infrequent they many be.
I've felt this tendency exactly and you've nailed it on the head here. It really is a turn off when I see a blatantly political and misleading post advertising on candidate or another. And it unfortunately carries over when it comes to reading about their investment advice and opinions. It's simply far too easy to feel that, if such an individual will intentionally mislead readers on one subject, what's to stop them from doing exactly that on investments?
You've always been very reasonable and level-headed in your posts which has led me to filter to your posts specifically after reading through the main page.
9-06-2008 @ 4:32PM
JCPetticrew said...
Energy ETF's have been good to me for the past few years and I am concerned the party may be over for one reason or another. It does upset me that companies like Microsoft, and Apple to make a margin profit of like over 25 % percent profit, that's just just good business and good entreprenuerorship. But It Really Drives me crazy whencompanies like XOM get persecuted for selling a product almost everyone in the world need like like water and is currently the most energy efficicient way to operate the majortity of vehicles. I understand xom returns about a10 % or 10 Cents profit margin on each dollar of gas they sell (Net). What every one fails to realize that we have used half of the easy oil and from the earth and it will become more expensive and harder to bring the final clean gas and finisished end user product from here on out. These are just the simple facts unless someone basically re-invents the wheel.
I do own Xom,Chevron, and many other hopefully for as long as I can hold on to recent downturn in stocks (Like 15%). I believe if the world Governments does not spend unthinkable amounts of money thrugh into alternative energy research, through subsidies research and infrastucure.The big energy companies, will surely realize at some point in time they will not be able to get oil efficiently, and my hope is that the Xom's, and Chevron's etc will be at the forefront of that new product development which is not only the new "Green" fuel or physical product they will re-invest there profits inot coming out with the next best and most important cost-effective " way of providing a way for us all to get around to live our lives each day which could put Americans back to work and maybe bring back the good old "Middle Class', or Middle "Upper class" and general solid job employment number which would ,most likely increase exports for the first time in a long time # 2 have the resources and cash reserves to buy any great inventions that may come to market in the near future and we can put American workers back to work, like after WW II, which while I was not born during this years, I believed while everything was not perfect, this was an era of true American's as a republic, who lived life with Integrity, Character, and wished to leave this country a better place than they found it through "Laizze-Fairre'" The belief in the "invisible hand theory" , capitalism, and supply and demandm, in which a man or women whom provides a good servce and.or product at resnable price we can find ourselves, in a position where rather than people isolatting themselves, they strive to work together and do the right things, when in the short run it is much easier to do the wrong thing, by taking a short cut, or not honoring your world or deal with your customers, employees, vendors, suppliers, etc. Anyways,
Just needed to vent and share my daily thoughts as we all fight our way through this econmy environment. If I did not fully disclose some of my nominal holdings, some are as follows : Energy ETF (Vanguard) VEGNX, Gold ETF (Fidelity) FSAGX, DRI (Darden Resturaunts) (Olive Garden,Longhorn Steakhouse, etc.
For what it is worth, I also believe Religion and Politics are interwoven, to some extent or another. It just can't be helped. However, there is no doubt in my sound and researched mind. The McCain / Palin ticket is a truly Independant Party who has been forced into back door his way in through riding the Republican Party coat tales. As I was a naive, idealistic, college graduate with a major in "Political Science" and minor in "Business". While I was a member in the "Young Republicans Party" and a registered Stounch Voting Republican, after a few years of living out in the "Real World" I began to observe most Dem's and Rep's where vairly rarely in 100 % agreement on each of there respective, 100 % on their parties platform.
This allowed me to think outside the box and consider an independant who took the most popular platforms to bring about the perfect new and improved "Legitimate Party". I guickly reaized any threat to either dem or rep would be crushed as soon as they became of any insugnifigance.
I believe this election will be looked back in history as a major turning point in the U.S. and the rest of the world. I don't pretend to know everything, but I am going vote for and encourage others to vote for the ticket for McCain / Palin.
Thanks for letting me ramble and share my thoughts. Jeff
9-09-2008 @ 9:23AM
Beltway Greg said...
With the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate John McCain made it abundantly clear the he's no "Maverick" but really just another egotistical politician who is actually jealous of Obama's ability to be as McCain's campaign ad puts it, "The most famous celebrity in the world." Do you not weep for our country now that we've been screwed by the best and the brightest on Wall Street who no longer fear the regulatory powers of the United States government?
Is John McCain a "Maverick" or a mouse? The most significant event in his life was getting captured by the North Vietnamese.
Now I have tons of respect for John's ability to survive the torture; personally I would've been on the first plane back to the states if they had offered me early release but he stayed and for that he deserves some respect. Let's look at his life. John McCain is the son of the sone of an admiral in the United States Navy who took his apointment to the Naval Academy so seriously that he finished 394 out of 399 students in his class. Yes folks that's five from the bottom. Then he managed to wreck three jets, I'm not counting the fire on the Forestal, before he was shot down over Hanoi. He led a group called the Bad Bunch or Bad Boys whatever during flight school that boozed their way
through flight training. When he was released he had hardly changed and became the male Heather Mills of his day by first folling around on and then leaving his faithful, disfigured, first wife for a rich beautiful younger woman. Very Christian of him. Keating five? Google it yourself. And while you're at it check out McCains spiritual advisor Pastor Hagee who called the Catholic church "the great whore" and who stated the god sent Hitler to be the Hunter to exterminate the jews and herd them into Israel. Sweet stuff. Of course, this outsider and reliable republican 90% + voting with his party has been in Washington forever recently passing Bob Dole in longevity. In 2000 he refused to save his own political hide when asked about the Confederate battle flag on the top of the statehouse in South Carolina but what can we expect from someone who voted against a holiday for Dr. King?
Of course at that point in time Rove and Co. had roughed him up plenty insinuating through push polling that he had a black child and his wife was a drug addict. Did McCain say anything? Kiss the hand that feeds him, no, he makes love to it. In 2004 his friend and fellow Vietnam vet was being slandered to death by T. Boone and the Swift Boat Veterans and what did John do? Nothing. Fast forward to 2008. It is a poorly kept secret that McCain wanted Lieberman as a running mate but once again the "Maverick" caved to the party bosses because he's a political starf@@ker of the first order more concerned with fame than actually taking a stand. The selection of Sarah Palin provided dramatic evidence that the Maverick gun is out of ammo. By his own admission he met her once? Let's examine one aspect of Palin's story, the jet. Let's see, she puts it on EBay where it fails to sell and then she sells it to a campaign contributor for .6 million less than the original asking price. Good instincts but a bad solution the hallmark of an individual unprepared to lead or in her case share power. A smart person would've contacted someone who knew something about the value of the plane and listed it with a broker instead of EBay. And let's not even get into the earmarks for Alaska. I can't wait to see her answer this question in the debate.
In the end McCain and Palin may win. Go back and watch the debates from 2000 between Bush 43 and Gore. Bush was a champion of the people and Gore was a pendantic college professor tiresomely (new word there folks) concerned about his students. This race is shaping up to be more of the same. The Populists Vs. The Professionals. Will America screw it up again? If the downfall of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is any indication the answer might be yes.
Beltway Greg