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With oil down 25%, why do gas and other prices stay so high?

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Since July 11, the price of oil has fallen 25% from $147 to $110. This has been terrible news for holders of energy stocks -- which have nosedived. But for people who need to fill up their tanks, prices at the pump remain relatively elevated -- having fallen about 10% (I remember paying $4.11 at the peak and now pay $3.69 a gallon).

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that companies using oil in their products are keeping their prices high despite the oil price drop. These companies seem to be acting in unison to raise prices -- suggesting there is not enough competition in their markets.

Which companies are raising prices still? Those who believe they can get away with it as they try to recoup the lost profit resulting from the recent increase in the price of oil -- which is an important raw material in their products..

  • Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) increased prices to retailers up 7% to 10% "for items made with ingredients derived from oil to 'recover costs already incurred,'" according to a Times interview with its spokesman.
  • Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) raised prices by 50% for the oil-based raw materials that go into diapers and polystyrene. It "does not want to give up those increases until the company recovers its old profit margins since '[its] prices continue to lag [its] cost increases,''" according to a Times interview with its spokesman.
  • Goodyear Tire and Rubber (NYSE: GT) has raised tire prices by 15% and is "still making synthetic rubber tires from oil-based feed stocks bought at relatively high prices more than three months ago [and it] 'could not consider canceling the price increase until it knew whether oil prices were going to stay down,'" according to a Times interview with its spokesman.

Why is this happening? Companies that use oil in their products fight hard to squeeze the maximum amount of profit out of a price increase because it is so hard to persuade a company's executives to approve it. That's because a higher price puts the company at risk of losing market share to competitors who keep their prices low. So, companies will look to market signals that competitors will also raise prices before they are willing to do so.

And once the price increases go into effect, companies will milk the profits that rise as the cost of oil goes down. The longer companies can keep their prices at the elevated level, the bigger the increase in profits will be in subsequent quarters. It would not be surprising to see the stock prices of such companies increase as oil prices continue to drop.

However, like the members of OPEC, some of these oil-using companies may eventually be tempted to lower their prices to grab market share from their competitors -- particularly as their profit margins widen along with the declining price of oil.

In the meantime, consumers will continue to pay much higher prices for gasoline and other oil derivatives than they should because there is not enough competition in these industries to push prices closer to costs.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 01:14 PM

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