Nobody ever knows why the stock market goes up or down every day. But that doesn't stop people from offering reasons. For instance, people used to say that if oil prices fell, stocks would rise. They said that if the government came to the rescue of troubled financial institutions, that would boost stocks. And they suggested that if the Fed cut interest rates more than expected, investors would buy stocks.
But today, The New York Times decided not to even offer an explanation. It suggested that nobody knows. And I agree with the Times -- I just disagree on all the other days when the media does offer an explanation for the daily movement of the stock market. Here are some of the discredited means of explaining today's move.
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Oil. Today oil fell $1.70 which normally makes stocks go up.
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Retail sales. As I posted, Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) did well and so did other discount stores. But that's been true for a year so there is no market-moving news here.
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Jobless claims. The number of people claiming "unemployment benefits last week rose to 444,000, near a five-year high," according to the Times. But those numbers have been rising all year.
So what is it? Could it be program trading? Could it be scary sounding words from bond investor Bill Gross on a light volume trading day?
The only people who know why they sold stocks today are the biggest investors in the world who traded. And they are not talking about why they made their move.
Thankfully, today nobody has offered an explanation for the 345 point decline. And until the SEC requires such investors to report on their reasons for trading -- we are really in the dark about what moves stock prices each day.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-04-2008 @ 8:56PM
Ben said...
I hate to be doom and gloom, but I wonder if there were simply uplifting factors that simply dropped out and once the support was gone...true direction was found. The ARS issue IS getting worse and worse by the day after all....
http://milkyourmoney.com/category/ars/
9-05-2008 @ 9:51AM
CJ said...
What do you mean no one knows? People are losing their jobs and prices are skyrocketing. Are money does not go nearly as far as it did earlier in the year.
Tax cuts only help those that are making money and have money to spend.
9-04-2008 @ 9:15PM
BW said...
I think here is a good reason the market is down.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/soc-gen-meltdow.html
The stock market is just catching up to reality. The rally the past couple of months have been completely unwarranted. Bottomcatchers beware
9-04-2008 @ 9:37PM
Jesse said...
Sometimes things happen that we just can't explain away. Our experts do their best, but sometimes, they're just spinning their wheels. A good book on this subject is "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Check it out, it sheds a lot of light on how much our experts can actually predict with any accuracy.
9-04-2008 @ 11:45PM
Bob Fanning said...
"Nobody knows why the Dow dropped 345 points today"
The technical fact of the matter is that the break away gap to the downside of late June was filled by these August rallies......a bullish signal.
If the trend was a pure bear market then the shorts wouldn't be stopped out as they have been with the August rallies and the breakaway gaps being filled.
From the perspective of a bear market trader looking in hindsight at the past 10 or 11 months ...this one in stocks sucked. {meaning that its a correction as opposed to a bear market}
9-04-2008 @ 10:24PM
NoInform8tion said...
Perhaps the large institutional investors finally realized the emerging markets won't be propping up the world's economy. Maybe reality sunk in that if US consumers aren't buying then no economy will hold up. Since US consumers are in debt and don't have much in savings, who will buy from the emerging markets? That's my guess. Reality just sunk in.
9-04-2008 @ 11:02PM
Vinny said...
I know why. It's because this country is all f***** up, and the Republicans did it. So what sort of Republican moronic fools are cheering their hearts out for this weird old power hungry flip-flopper with not a bright ideaa in his head. More of the same....not f****** likely. I'm sending more money to Obama tonight. McBush is just an a** h***. Plain and simple.
9-04-2008 @ 11:53PM
cleo cortez said...
I fully agree with the author of this article. No one really knows for sure why stocks tumble one day then rise again the next. One thing for sure is that the economy is very unstable and has been like this for at least 8 years. Need I say more?
9-05-2008 @ 12:22AM
whtm said...
LOL THIS ENRON MARKET IS JUSTTHAT FULL OF STATS THAT ARE A JOKE LIKE UNEMPLOYMENT ? ONLY COUNT PEOPLE WHO MADE APPS IN THE LAST 90 DAYS ? THATS IT THEY DO NOT COUNT PEOPLE WHO COLLECT BEYOND OR EXAHUSTED OR WERE DENIED ! A 10 BILLION A WEEK WAR ! BANKS BANKRUPT FEDS BAILOUT OF WALL STREET DID NO GOOD! INFLATION OUT OF CONTROL lol CORE AND NON CORE ! ANOTHER ENRON STAT. FEDERAL DEFICITS OUT OF CONTROL ! FOOD AND ENERGY OUT OF CONTROL ! CONGRESS SPENDING OUT OF CONTROL ! YEP ITS THE BUSH REPUBLICAN ECONOMY ! 1-20 -09 AN END OF AN ERROR ! G.W...BYE..
9-05-2008 @ 12:45AM
WENDELL ANDERSON said...
Yes, I think there is an explanation for the uncalled-for drop in the stock market...it is called a combined political attempt to continue to discredit the present administration! Look at what the fools did to oil prices with their commodity options!!! Some of your responders forget that the Democrats have controlled Congress for some time now....badly!!
9-05-2008 @ 1:54AM
Rex said...
There appears to be some commentary out there that a number of hedge funds are selling to meet investor withdrawal requests. Also, several hedge funds are liquidating. This seems to be exacerbating the current volatility to the downside.
9-08-2008 @ 1:31PM
whtm said...
HEY WENDELL , 8YRS OF G.W. 12 YRS OF A REPUBLICAN CONTROLED CONGRESS THAT WAS REPUBLICAN FROM 1995 - 2007 !! THATS A FACT ! WHY IS IT WHEN A REPUBLICAN CONSERVATIVE G.W. SPENDS 10 BILLION A WEEK ON A WAR AND CALL THAT FREEDOM ? BUT TRY TO SPEND JUST HALF THAT CASH ON AMERICAN's FOR HEALTHCARE TO GET IT OFF THE BACKS OF OUR BIZ AND PEOPLE YOU SAME CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS CALL THAT COMMUNISM/ SOCIALISM.IF DEMS ARE TAX AND SPEND REP ARE BORROW AND SPEND...
9-05-2008 @ 6:33AM
Mike Drescher said...
Job loss has been huge the last three months, and with the number of plant and retail closings is expected to be huge in Aug. And people don't know why the Dow dropped? Certainly pundits aren't that stupid, investors aren't. The housing mess is somewhat predicated by the job loss and stagnant wages. In fact yesterdays report said salaries had actually fallen though productivity is up. Meaning that extra money is going right to the fat cats! I know in my own slice of the world, I'm working harder for less, and massive layoffs are planned. Consequently I buy less, used if possible, and try and acquire no debt. Our country in in deep do do, because of Republican mismanagement and malfeasance.
9-05-2008 @ 7:35AM
Chris said...
The markets plunged yesterday because the S&P futures broke key technical support at the 1260 level. Huge sell orders was resting beneath this level. When this level was broken it triggered these orders and many began to get margin calls which forced even more liquidation. This is the true reason the markets fell yesterday. This move signals the bears are in control once again. We haven't seen the lows yet. It's all about technical analysis people. Study and learn it. Then the next time, you will know why the markets do what they do.
9-05-2008 @ 8:24AM
Limoman said...
LOL you don't get it!
Big Business is Driving the markets down to Keep Unions and Non Unions from getting higher Salaries and Benefits..
ever notice how those Contracts Come about the same time in the Fall?
It's no coincidence...
The Pro's Return from 6 wks Vacation.. Is another reason..Notice the Volume ...
They placed their Bets( Puts) and drove the market down
And the Big Money& Big Business want to drive the Market down to force The Fed to Cut Rates! ( And force the Rest of us to pay for it )
9-05-2008 @ 8:26AM
Marion Brown said...
Wendell - look past the trees for the forest!.. Mike, you are correct. At work the other day I told a few of my coworkers (those that were interested enough to listen) that this week's bullish market was just so much ca ca and that the bottom would drop out shortly. Apparently it did. My personal belief is that there are super powers at work that plan to sift out the unwary to get every last nickel and dime. Leveling the playing field, so to speak. Either that or a stock market genie playing with a yo-yo.
9-05-2008 @ 8:27AM
ROBERTm said...
Let's see. 5 trillion national debt. Rising unemployment and inflation. Spending down, housing pricing coming back to reality. Banks failing, Gov't using the Fed like a piggy bank and the chapter is only half read.
SOON
Credit card defaults will be the big news as Americans can no longer pay their bills.
9-05-2008 @ 8:34AM
Limoman said...
Sure they know! but don't want to say it!
> It's the Financials..Housing and Banks that drive our market..Not Energy..
> Energy plays only about 12% of our economy and your income as well..
> If you have enough income , you could care less what it cost for Gas in your SUV..
> That income comes from higher salaries and Having higher equity in your Home..
> If oyur home is Growing at a 8% apy rate, you don't have to save as much in your IRA and can spend more on Toys!
> But when it Makes less and even Looses value? Bingo! you lost your Secuirty Blankey..
Energy/Oil/Nat. Gas is Only a Small part of the Problem and Not the solution..
Give people 7% Interest on their Homes and Savings and they will pay for higher energy costs..
Mr. Berneke? RAISE rates..Thus Allowing only those who Deserve to own a Home, can do so.. Not the Poor & Loosers of our county.. That has been proven, time and time again..
and a 7% rate will keep our Seniors from going Broke as well..
I paid off my home with a 7% Mortgage..and so have Millions of others like me ... while getting 7-8% interest rates on my CD's and Bonds..in return and my home Grew by an ave of 8% apy too...
9-05-2008 @ 9:35AM
BELLCORD said...
SINCE THE AUTHOR OF THIS BLOG WAS CONFIDENTLY PREDICTING $200 BARREL OIL AND THE COLLASPE OF FANNIE AND FREDDIE A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO I'D SAY ,YEAH, HE DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE...