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Will Boeing and its workers come to terms in the next 48 hours?

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The Wall Street Journal reports that Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) factory workers who belong to the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) have voted to strike by a wide margin. However, thanks to the intervention of a federal mediator, the two sides have 48 hours to try to work something out. I cannot tell whether they will be able to find common ground.

Eighty-seven percent of IAM's "26,800 machinists rejected a proposed three-year contract that would have given members raises and bonuses totaling $34,000," according to the Journal. Boeing offered each union member a $2,500 signing bonus only if "the contract was ratified on the first vote." IAM's decision not to ratify costs workers that bonus. Boeing proposed an "11% pay raise over the life of the contract, as well as boosting pensions by 14% to $80 a month for each year of service. [The contract would pay the average union member] roughly $65,000 a year before overtime that averages $10,000 a year or more," according to the Journal.

IAM wants a bigger raise, more pension contributions, and lower health care payments. As the Journal wrote, IAM wants "pay raises of at least 13% and a larger pension amount. It also wants Boeing to abandon plans to have workers take on a greater share of certain health-care costs."

Boeing has been trying to outsource more component manufacturing while retaining control of final aircraft assembly. This puts Boeing at odds with IAM long-term since more outsourcing means fewer IAM workers on Boeing's payroll. But with a backlog of almost 900 787s, Boeing will lose $100 million a day if IAM strikes, which gives IAM a strong short-term bargaining position.

If Boeing and IAM conclude that each will be better off with a contract settlement, then it might be possible to split the difference between their positions -- agreeing on, say, a 12% raise and finding a halfway point between their other differences.

Boeing needs to weigh the costs of a lengthy strike that could cost it billions against its desire to preserve its profit margins by capping its labor costs. IAM must assess whether the gains likely to emerge from a lengthy strike would be much better than Boeing's offer in mediation.

I think the next 48 hours offer both sides an opportunity. We'll see whether they take it.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. Portfolio will publish his book about Boeing, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, in December 2008. He has no financial interest in Boeing securities.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 07:48 PM

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